Thursday, October 13, 2011

The Semifinals. Predictions and Prayers

After 44 games and 254 tries, we are 160 minutes of rugby away from the final. Well that's if neither game goes to overtime, and looking at the match-ups one or both of them could be that close.

So what will we see?

Firstly the two remaining Northern Hemisphere teams

Saturday 15th October - Eden Park - 9pm
Wales (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries) v France (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 2 losses, 15tries)
Wales have definitely been the best team at the tournament thus far. They've escaped the ravages of injuries that have plagued most of their competitors and they have beavered away through the Rugby World Cup getting better with every game. This is really saying something because their first outing saw them get within a point of the Springboks in the cliffhanger that was Game 8.

They also had the most convincing Quarter Final victory against Ireland as they absorbed a huge amount of pressure and intensity to cooly dismiss their Celtic rivals by 12 points. The margin wasn't the highest (the All Blacks scored more) but the manner of their victory was far more emphatic. They also scored 3 superb tries in the match, which topped any other team in the Quarters.

Their strength is in playing a complete game; they are superbly drilled by kiwi coach Warren Gatland, inspirationally led by 23 year old skipper Sam Warbuton, and they seem to do everything well. They are competitive in the set piece, have flair and pace aplenty in the backs, and can defend and contest the loose ball like dervishes.

On the other hand France have been pretty much rubbish until their last game where they surprised England in the first half, got their noses in front and held on to astonish most viewers. I say astonish but really it wasn't so surprising. France have a habit of producing their best form in dribs and drabs.

The big question about this match-up is can France do it again? If they do, then they have to do more, because Wales are a better team than England. But they are capable of beating Wales on Saturday certainly. They have won their last 3 encounters after all. But I don't think they will.

I think pulling off two games on the trot will be hoping too much for French supporters.

Wales to win it by 10.

And the last two Southern Hemisphere teams standing are from around here.

Sunday 16th October - Eden Park - 9pm
New Zealand (RWC 2011, 5 wins, 38 tries) v Australia (RWC 2011, 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries)

This is a real head vs heart prediction.

The head says that Australia have had the better build up, and have played more tough rugby leading up to the game. They've had injury woes, but can still field their most crucial players in this match. The All Blacks have had an amazing preparation over the last few years (where they planned for every nth detail), but are surprisingly ragged.

The two things AB fans all knew going into the Rugby World Cup was that there is depth aplenty in New Zealand rugby, apart from in two positions; #7 and #10.

The departure of Dan Carter, then Colin Slade due to groin issues has seen a new player hoisted into the first five limelight. Aaron Cruden made an excellent debut against Argentina but he was helped in no small way by Piri Weepu. The Aussies will be targeting this combination and will try to disrupt the both of them. Expect the Wallabies to try many antics at scrum-time to disturb Weepu's kicking options, and force him to hurry the ball out to Cruden. If the Manawatu man can pass Sunday's test then he has a great future ahead of him.

The other crucial position is blind side flanker. The Wallabies David Pocock is on fire and he single-handedly saved his team against the Springboks. We all know that a fully fit Richie McCaw would probably just pip Pocock to the title of World's Best Open Side. But he isn't fully fit.

If Richie can hold parity with Pocock and lead his men, the All Blacks should be able to best the Australians. If he can't then all bets are off. So the head has its doubts about an All Black victory. But the heart says they will do it. Of course they will!

My utmost hope is that Piri in his last few minutes on the field has the gall to hold four fingers in Quade Cooper's face and say to him "Four more years!"

Sadly that's not his style, and also I don't think we'll be counting any chickens as the game goes down to the wire.

All Blacks to win a tight tight match, possibly in extra time.

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