This is one of the great Rugby World Cup rivalries, and we have a cracker day in Hamilton and a full house too by the look.
For some reason Wales are "favourites". Yes they outrank Samoa (6th v 10th) but the teams have met 7 times in history and Wales are only ahead 4/3 there - twice in Rugby World Cups, where the Manu Samoa team have triumphed on both occasions. Manu Samoa will surely enjoy a home town advantage, being sentimental favourites as our cultural cousins here in Aotearoa. So my guess is they could easily win this one, the next 80 minutes will tell.
Welsh kicker James Hook misses a chance to draw first blood just 2 minutes into the match, but misses. His error rate was a big factor in the Welsh teams opening loss to the Springboks. Wales will want him to put that kick behind him as this game continues.
There is a huge surprise 6 minutes in when a cunning Samoan scrum steals a tight head whilst camped on the Welsh try line. Unfortunately the number 8 Lavea Livi fails to control his chance at an early try.
A high shot 10 minutes in gives Hook a simpler opportunity at goal and he takes it. 3-0 to Wales with the breeze at their backs. No real running rugby yet, with the plays staying one or two off the ruck. Boy I wrote that too early - a Murphy's law thing - in fact as soon as I wrote that sentence the Welsh backs string together about 6 phases over a few minutes, as the play goes right across the field and back, but they find no headway.
With 20 minutes gone I have to say the game is a trifle disappointing, both teams seem set on not losing rather than winning, and I've never seen a Pacific Island team play with so little flair - are the Samoans a bit stage struck here? They are awarded a penalty about 45 meters from goal, and happily take the points as Paul Williams slots the penalty. 3-3 with a quarter of the game gone, please let's see some initiative now.
Rhys Priestland the Welsh first five tries and fails to slot a drop goal after 22 minutes. Surely in these beautiful conditions the teams should be trying to gain points 5 at a time? Next play bogs down into a succesion of scrums which finally eventuate in another Hook penalty. 26 minutes gone the score is 6-3 and I feel like I haven't watched any rugby yet.
This is more like it by Manu Samoa! They rumble the ball up onto the Welsh try line and Maurie Faasavalu dots it down, only to be correctly adjudged to have used a double movement. No try. But Samoa are first across the Welsh line, and I think they will use this to motivate themselves through the match.
Williams sadly misses an optimistic shot at another penalty at 31 minutes. They are only 3 points out of this game and are only just warming up. If Samoa can change up to third gear Wales will be in trouble I feel.
Remember when I said (3 paragraphs ago) that nether team was trying to win, well as Fonzie once said "I was w, w, w, wr, wr... not right". The defining moment of the first half (and maybe the match) occurs 39 minutes in. The Samoans gain a kickable penalty, they ask the ref if they have time for a lineout, he says "Knock yourself out". They kick for touch, win their throw, then rumble for several phases and Anthony Perenise final dots down to the crowd's delight. Williams converts and Manu Samoa are ahead at the break 10-6.
Manu Samoa will have the wind at their back and fire in their bellies in the next half. It is a long way back from here for Wales.
The second half begins with some genius commentary from Grant Fox, the incredibly learned expert on all things kicking. Rhys Priestland opts to take a long penalty attempt into the stiff breeze. Foxy ponders "That's right at the limit of his range into this wind". The kick bounces on top of the crossbar and over - put that man in your Pub Quiz team. 43 mins 10-9, Wales are straight back into the hunt, what is it about this team and the one point margin?
The big difference between the Samoan play and the typical "Island style" is the speed they are recycling ball out of the rucks. They aren't playing at the usual hare em scare em pace. Halfback Kahn Fotuali'i is assessing all of his options and mustering his troops before he releases the ball to the next phase. This means they aren't making many mistakes, but it also means the Welsh are able to organise their defence too. Thus we are seeing a much tighter encounter than we would have expected.
After 60 minutes the score is still 10-9, it seems certain we'll all be on the edge of our seats in 20 minutes time.
Bugger! 65 mins in and Manu Samoa concede a kickable penalty. Their first five Tasesa Lavea may have the best hair on the park, but he keeps infringing in the rucks, and the penalty count is starting to count. Hook pops it over and Wales are ahead 12-10.
Hold the phone Welsh fulback Leigh Halfpenny is on the money, as he returns the kick off straight back down the left wing - he does it all and lays on a try for Welsh try scoring machine Shane Williams in the corner. The conversion is missed. 17-10 Wales. With 10 minutes left.
Madness! The Samoan team twice don't go for 3 points with 5 minutes to play. They might score a try, but it could take minutes of valuable time to tie the game. Argh! Wales steal it. You should never argue with Foxy. With 4 minutes still to play I am sure Wales have this won. I'd love to be w, w, w not right of course.
This whistle happy ref spoils the chance of the players deciding who wins the game, as he awards a senseless free kick against the Samoan scrum. Why would they try and cheat when they are hot on attack, you moron?
Wales deserve some good luck after they were robbed against South Africa, but I really hate to see it coming against the brave Samoans. They win the game 17-10.
Final score: Wales 17 - Samoa 10
17 games 84 tries.
Tweet of the match - "As someone who generally cheers on the underdog this match is messing with my underdog radar" @alilkram
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