After 40 games of rugby in just 3 weeks, the RWC has reached the sudden death phase. As the Flight of the Conchords say; "it's business time!". Like the rest of the country, I've been enjoying the time off between games, but not because I'm sick of rugby. The break in play has meant time to mull over the forthcoming games, and consider what might happen.
Well this post, and another I'll post tomorrow morning, is all about putting my money where my mouth is. I'll put them up in advance of the games, and we'll see how close I was to being correct within hours.
Game 1 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
Ireland (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 6) vs Wales (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 7).
The team that most pundits seem to think have the edge here is Wales. They have scored 180 points in the 4 games at this tournament, and in doing so they have rattled in a bloody impressive 23 tries. Yes they lost a match, but that was a very close run thing against big guns South Africa in Game 8. Losing that game by a solitary point saw them finish Poll D in 2nd spot with utmost respect.
Ireland have had their finest Rugby World Cup to date. They've scored 135 points, including 15 tries. But whatever happens from here on, their tournament will always be remembered for their amazing boil-over defeat of the Wallabies in Game 16. They won Pool C and are one of only 4 teams remaining who are still undefeated.
Why do most people think Wales are going to win then? History, I guess - they have a longer heritage, are more proven in winning big games and some consider that they have more belief.
But I don't think Wales will win. I think the Irish have more ticker. They have an excellent first five Jonathan Sexton, an inspirational captain in Brian O'Driscoll, and a superb winger in Tommy Bowe. And they have proved they can win the games that matter.
Even though the game against Australia went down to the wire, the Irish actually won the it by 9 points. They've had the chance to beat the Wallabies at RWC's twice before and haven't taken it. I think every member of their 30 man squad will believe passionately that THIS is their year. And I think they are not only going to win this game, but possibly make a final.
It will be close don't get me wrong, but Irish eyes will be smiling in Wellington tonight.
Game 2 - 8.30pm Eden Park
England (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 5) vs France (RWC 2011 - 2 wins, 2 losses/ World Ranking 4)
There is no doubt that the English are by far the superior team in this match up. They have totally dominated Pool B, despite their many off-field escapades. They also have marvellous momentum, having looked better with each outing. They are undefeated at the cup and have scored 137 points and 18 tries. Not only that, they have by far the best defence at the tournament and have only conceded a single try (to Georgia of all teams!).
This is the poorest French team we've ever seen at a Rugby World Cup. They can consider themselves exceptionally lucky to advance from Pool A having been whipped by the All Blacks and then humiliated by Tonga in Game 35. They don't seem to be in the least bit French either; lacking both the muscular forward pack and the mercurial backline we all expect from Gallic teams.
So it is obvious what will go down tonight in Auckland then? I think not. I think the England will play very well in the first instance and build up a healthy lead. They'll amass most of their points via kicking penalties and/or drop goals, probably from Toby Flood's boot rather than Jonny Wilkinson's. But I think that then they will try and sit on their lead rather than pressing on, and that will prove their undoing.
If the French aren't put away by a significant margin in the first half, I reckon they'll muster their magic and fight back in the second half. I think the French will have a last gasp chance to win the game with 15 or so minutes remaining, and that they may well do just that. I predict that France will grasp a shock victory.
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