As of next year, the increasingly stale Tri Nations competition is being refreshed into a Quad Nations instead. And serving as a promo for the rugby fest we can look forward to, are these two matches between the 4 teams in question. It's like a marketer's dream! So who will prevail? Here are my two cents worth.
Game 3 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
South Africa (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 2) vs Australia (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 3)
After an indifferent Tri Nations campaign, the Springboks have surprised us all thus far in the tournament. They seemed rusty first up against Wales. But looked imposing when they demolished Fiji the following week. By the time they smashed their Namibian neighbours 87-0 in Albany in the tournament's most emphatic game, the Bokke seemed almost imperious.
They have won 4 games, scored 166 points and 21 tries as they triumphed in Pool D, boasting the second best defence (to England) in the Pool rounds, conceding just 2 tries. They also have clearly the best goal kicking at the RWC, with Morne Steyn missing just one attempt in all of the matches played. Losing long kicking range specialist Francois Steyn to injury has been a blow, but probably won't make too much difference in this match.
The Springboks won't be counting any chickens yet. Last weeks 13-5 scare to Samoa was no doubt timely, because there is no way they will be coming to today's fixture with any sense of complacency.
Their foes in this game - the fiendish Wallabies - have been painted as sub-par at this tournament. But I question this. Yes they were unprepared for the Irish onslaught at Eden Park in Game 16, but I said back then that the Wallabies would "like a cockroach... doubtless survive this spray of poison and be back for more later in the tournie". And here they are having scored 173 points and 25 tries.
Despite the All Black's headline hogging, the Wallabies have had the worst run of any team with injuries at the tournament, even resorting to playing big #8 Radike Samo on the wing as they've awaited reinforcements. But as they say when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
As an All Black fan, I'd love to see the Australians dip out of contention tonight. Despite their injury woes they still have the most menacing back line in the competition, and their forward pack can be an absolute handfull. But the very reasons I want to see them gone, are just why they'll win this and win it comfortably.
The Australians are capable of playing irrepressible attacking rugby - the kind of play which is almost impossible to prepare for. The Springboks are only about systems and planning - they don't have flair anywhere except for the two wingers. Peter De Villiers has made his team seem formidable for several weeks, but the Samoans nearly burst their bubble. I think coach Robbie Deans will send a clear message with this game, and we'll see the Wallabies post an emphatic victory.
I really can't envisage any other result.
Game 4 - 8.30pm Eden Park
New Zealand (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 1) vs Argentina (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 9)
The All Blacks have once drawn with Argentina. It was in 1985, at the nadir of All Black teams... as Paul Kelly sang "They say the darkest hour is just before the dawn". And I remember watching this 21-21 draw at some strange hour of the morning, and thinking that the great All Blacks would never live it down.
Now here they are playing Los Pumas in a Quarter Final of a Rugby World Cup. And a none too shabby side either for that matter. The Argentinians have performed solidly at this tournament, but they haven't exactly lit it up. They came 2nd in Pool B, having nearly surprised England in Game 5. But they've only scored 90 points and just 10 tries.
A real factor in this low tally is the woeful place kicking of the otherwise inspirational (and delightfully named) first five Felipe Contempomi. If they were able to turn pressure into points they'd probably be able to keep things respectable against the All Blacks. This is because they have a great pack, and they are World Class in set piece play. But that is a big "if".
New Zealand have been the best team at the tournament thus far in terms of playing attacking footy. They've scored 240 points and a whopping 36 tries, averaging 9 tries per game in totally dominating Pool A. On the down side is a poor place kicking conversion rate, and a surprisingly soft defence. They've leaked 6 tries already at the tournament including 4 to genuine minnows Tonga, Canada and Japan.
Also on the down side is the uncertainty in team selection. The All Blacks play this game with a make shift halfback-first five combination, a Captain who can't run at training and with many of their first choice players unavailable. It shouldn't matter this week. I think the All Blacks will very comfortably account for Argentina. By this I mean a victory of 25 points or over.
The disappointing thing for them is that whatever the score tonight, they can't feel ready for next week given the state of their stocks right now.
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