If you are reading this then you are probably one of the loyal few who have stuck with this blog, like me, for the last 6 weeks and 46 games of footy. More than just a few actually! The stats show that many posts have been read by around a hundred people. Altogether the blog has had over 3000 page views.
Delving deep into the posts reveals these 3 facts about me:
1. I love rugby in general and the All Blacks in particular
2. I was made redundant on the verge of the RWC and took that as a sign to start blogging
3. My marvellous wife Megan is pregnant with twins, our first children, and she's been in hospital for the last fortnight. It is a high risk pregnancy and she's been watched like a hawk.
Amazingly all of these strands are resolving themselves at once.
1. The tournament is about to climax with the ABs, quite rightly, in the final.
2. I have accepted a fantastic freelancing gig that I have been putting off starting until the tournament ends. After 6 weeks of sifting around watching footy it is time to start earning again.
3. After 30 weeks of pregnancy our twins need to be delivered now - by that I mean tomorrow! Friday the 21st of October. The day of the 3rd/4th playoff and two days before the grand final. The twins need out, and that means no waiting for anything.
In lots of ways this blog has been a magnificent escape. An escape from working every day and from addressing the responsibilities of my impending fatherhood. But as they say all good things must come to an end.
Megan goes into theatre tomorrow for a planned C-Section, and after that our lives will never be the same again. This tournament (and the blog) which have seemed so important to me for the last 6 weeks now seem somewhat irrelevant. The results of the next 160 minutes of rugby mean nothing in comparison for our desires for a healthy outcome tomorrow.
Would I sacrifice an All Black victory for a healthy Megan and two boys (they are identical but we don't know which) or girls? You bet! Any day of the week.
Not that I think we'll have to. I'm pretty sure the next two games will deliver a victory to Wales, then a victory to the All Blacks. Astonishingly that will give the same result as in the inaugural tournament 24 years ago.
But the only delivery that matters to us now, is the one taking place tomorrow morning.
I can't imagine a circumstance that would make me feel the need to finish the blog, because its natural full stop will be when Megan and I finally get to meet our Pebbles and BamBam. We can't wait.
Thanks for reading over the last few weeks. It has been a blast.
Go Wales. Go Black. Go Megan. Go Pebbles. Go Bambam.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Game 46 - Semi Final 2 - Australia v New Zealand - Sun 16th Oct 2011
Wow I tell you it is a simply cracker-jack day in Wellington today - quite simply one out of the box. My spy in Auckland Paul "Poor" Schrader tells me that it is just as good in Auckland... Sunny, gentle westerly and 18 degrees Celsius.
Again I've ventured up to Brooklyn from Wellington Hospital where I've spent the afternoon with my gorgeous and increasingly pregnant wife Megan. I'm here at Mary's house (long suffering wife of Poor Schrader) and we'll eat dinner before being joined by her son Zeb, my Megan, our unborn twins and my Mother Janice (the world's biggest fan of Cory Jane).
Together we will all watch the game that New Zealand has been expectantly waiting for for 24 years. I know, I know, this isn't a final, but surely either the ABs or Wallabies will have too much fire power for the damp squib French side who will be opposing either of them in next week's final.
Last night's Semi between Wales and France has taught us plenty. Wales were the best team at the tournament thus far. They had standout players in crucial positions and they played in a way where the whole team complimented each other all around the park. They were brilliantly drilled, and had a fine skipper to boot. They seemed prepared for anything. On paper, and in my prediction, they were always going to win last night.
And then the game came along and spoiled the theory. Last night showed that the best team won't always win. We have seen this proven for the last few weeks running at this RWC. Samoa deserved to beat the Springboks, who in turn should have monstered the Wallabies last week. So my worry about tonight's match has come starkly into focus.
Despite the Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw injury scares, the All Blacks look the better team for this match than the Wallabies. They are driven by a finely-honed pack, who have performed perfectly in this tournament at scrum-time and in the lineout. They have 3 excellent loose forwards, with Jerome Kaino thus far being the most consistent player at the RWC. They have rugby's best outside center combination of Ma 'a Nonu and Conrad Smith, and outside of them 3 of the most inventive and clinical finishers in the business. They even have one of Rugby Union's biggest drawcards up their sleeve with SBW on the bench.
The team's only perceived weakness is the very fresh combination of Weepu/Cruden at halfback/first five. But this may end up working out for them too, as the Aussies will have had little chance to analyse their deficiencies. Make no mistake this is a very good team on the verge of greatness.
The Wallabies look much more shaky; they have lost their most potent player Kurtley Beale to a bad hammy, their scrum and lineout were both abject against South Africa and their talisman Quade Cooper has looked off-colour for weeks. They would not be here if it weren't for David Pocock whose scrambling quest for ball single-handedly bested the Springboks.
If they were to play this game 10 times I reckon the All Blacks would win by 9, but they only get one shot. Will tonight be their night? I will find out with you all in real time, without my trusty iPad. This game is way too important for me to have any distractions.
I'll give the last word to my Mother-in-Law Winifred Bull. She told Megan the other day that after Aotearoa's annus horribilis; with the Christchurch earthquakes, the Pike River tragedy and now the Rena disaster that it becomes incumbent on the All Blacks to cheer all 4 million of us up. While I see her point, it is a lot of pressure on those 15 men in black.
So, no pressure ABs, show us what you got.
80 minutes later... The All Blacks had plenty. The loose trio isolated Pocock and totally dominated the breakdown. The tight 5 were supreme at scrumtime. Everyone (except for SBW with 4 minutes to play) showed amazing discipline. The outside 3 were brilliant on defence and attack. Piri was steady and Cruden ice cold. They won the kicking battle. They won the pressure battle. And they won the top two inches battle.
They were simply way too good for the Wallabies.
New Zealand 20 - 6 Australia
Tweet of the match - "Is AC the new DC?" @SmithyInBrissy
Again I've ventured up to Brooklyn from Wellington Hospital where I've spent the afternoon with my gorgeous and increasingly pregnant wife Megan. I'm here at Mary's house (long suffering wife of Poor Schrader) and we'll eat dinner before being joined by her son Zeb, my Megan, our unborn twins and my Mother Janice (the world's biggest fan of Cory Jane).
Together we will all watch the game that New Zealand has been expectantly waiting for for 24 years. I know, I know, this isn't a final, but surely either the ABs or Wallabies will have too much fire power for the damp squib French side who will be opposing either of them in next week's final.
Last night's Semi between Wales and France has taught us plenty. Wales were the best team at the tournament thus far. They had standout players in crucial positions and they played in a way where the whole team complimented each other all around the park. They were brilliantly drilled, and had a fine skipper to boot. They seemed prepared for anything. On paper, and in my prediction, they were always going to win last night.
And then the game came along and spoiled the theory. Last night showed that the best team won't always win. We have seen this proven for the last few weeks running at this RWC. Samoa deserved to beat the Springboks, who in turn should have monstered the Wallabies last week. So my worry about tonight's match has come starkly into focus.
Despite the Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw injury scares, the All Blacks look the better team for this match than the Wallabies. They are driven by a finely-honed pack, who have performed perfectly in this tournament at scrum-time and in the lineout. They have 3 excellent loose forwards, with Jerome Kaino thus far being the most consistent player at the RWC. They have rugby's best outside center combination of Ma 'a Nonu and Conrad Smith, and outside of them 3 of the most inventive and clinical finishers in the business. They even have one of Rugby Union's biggest drawcards up their sleeve with SBW on the bench.
The team's only perceived weakness is the very fresh combination of Weepu/Cruden at halfback/first five. But this may end up working out for them too, as the Aussies will have had little chance to analyse their deficiencies. Make no mistake this is a very good team on the verge of greatness.
The Wallabies look much more shaky; they have lost their most potent player Kurtley Beale to a bad hammy, their scrum and lineout were both abject against South Africa and their talisman Quade Cooper has looked off-colour for weeks. They would not be here if it weren't for David Pocock whose scrambling quest for ball single-handedly bested the Springboks.
If they were to play this game 10 times I reckon the All Blacks would win by 9, but they only get one shot. Will tonight be their night? I will find out with you all in real time, without my trusty iPad. This game is way too important for me to have any distractions.
I'll give the last word to my Mother-in-Law Winifred Bull. She told Megan the other day that after Aotearoa's annus horribilis; with the Christchurch earthquakes, the Pike River tragedy and now the Rena disaster that it becomes incumbent on the All Blacks to cheer all 4 million of us up. While I see her point, it is a lot of pressure on those 15 men in black.
So, no pressure ABs, show us what you got.
80 minutes later... The All Blacks had plenty. The loose trio isolated Pocock and totally dominated the breakdown. The tight 5 were supreme at scrumtime. Everyone (except for SBW with 4 minutes to play) showed amazing discipline. The outside 3 were brilliant on defence and attack. Piri was steady and Cruden ice cold. They won the kicking battle. They won the pressure battle. And they won the top two inches battle.
They were simply way too good for the Wallabies.
New Zealand 20 - 6 Australia
Tweet of the match - "Is AC the new DC?" @SmithyInBrissy
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Game 45 - Semi Final 1 - Wales v France - Eden Park - 15th Oct 2011
Looks like we can expect some more winter like conditions for tonight's match. Aiding the chill feeling is the fact that this will be the first match with the super late 9pm kickoff, which is for the benefit of overseas broadcasters, rather than the 55,000 spectators.
For full details of my prediction of a Welsh victory check out my Semi Final preview. I think the conditions will favour their complete game, so I am even surer that the leek will prevail tonight.
With 20 minutes to go in the build-up, I need to comment on something which has been bugging the ex-sound recordist in me. All of the "comments guys" who appear on the field in this tournament have been provided with Webb Ellis trophy "hood ornaments" for their microphones. These look ridiculous - like they've come from the $2 shop. They are in every respect wrong.
Also 65,000 punters are watching the match at the Millennium stadium in Wales - heaps more than at the actual match! That is a sure sign that the Welsh will be up for this game.
The Welsh forwards make an imperious start, with a prefect line-out followed by a 20 metre maul forward, but they have a poor case of the dropsies and lose their early advantage. Not to be outdone, the French return this with interest and soon find themselves inside the Welsh 22.
Both teams are chancing their arms, but the slippery conditions mean the pill is dropped at crucial moments. James Hook gets the first points on the scoreboard after 8 minutes, converting a penalty that seemed unjust to France. French open side Dusautoir is unfairly penalised for fairly challenging Welsh possesion. 3-0 Wales.
Prop Adam Jones, the last remaining Welsh "hair bear", leaves the park injured after 10 minutes. This is disappointing for Wales and the fans. He is a great character. But the Welsh are really on the right side of referee Alain Roubert who is penalising the French quite harshly at the early stage of this match.
Wales are looking bloody good, but don't make the most of early territory and possession. The score remains 3-0 until the 17th minute when all hell breaks lose. Welsh skipper Sam Warbuton smashes Les Bleu's winger Vincent Clerk into the turf in a semi spear tackle. He gets shown the red card, and the French will have a one man advantage for the remaining 3/4s of the match.
A yellow card would probably have been fairer. Now Wales must use a back to maintain 8 men in the pack at scrum-time. They've lost the best forward and their skipper. Disaster.
Morgan Parra soon puts the teams even, converting a scrummaging penalty, 3-3. After 22 minutes.
Wales are in big trouble. Well they would be IF France knew how to use the 1 man advantage, but they play clumsy floundering footy for the next 10 minutes and fail to look at all convincing.
Welsh fly half James Hook misses his opportunity to get his team back ahead by missing a 40 metre penalty after 28 minutes. Parra does much better with a similar kick on 36 minutes and puts the French ahead for the first time at 6-3. And that is the score at the break.
Surely if the Welsh had not lost Warbuton they would be all over France. Warren Gatland might still find a way to refocus his team and elect some tactics to get them back in it. The lacklustre French are there for the taking.
Ole! They're back.
Halftime has brought red bush tea and Mary's shortbread, delicious.
France start the half as if they were England. They are all about the kick, the drop kick and territory. They are counting on their numerical advantage of players to win the game, but like England (at this tournament) they don't have the skills to put Wales away.
Parra puts France 9-3 ahead after 49 minutes. but as we all know a 6 point lead is never safe in Rugby. Wales have subbed off the very disappointing James Hook, whose 2 missed penalties in this game are the only difference on the score board.
Paul Schrader, one of my companions watching this game, has just muttered, "You'd be pissed off if you paid $900 to watch this". And he's right (not that he needs to pay for too many tickets - jammy bugger). Pissed off until the world's biggest halfback Mike Phillips scores another huge try! This is the same giant who broke open the Irish game last week. Stephen Jones misses the conversion, but now it's a one point match. 9-8 France after 60minutes.
It's amazing that the team with 14 on the park are the first to score a try. It shows the Welsh resilience and also demonstrates the lack of French ambition. Most neutral parties to this match would be supporting Wales 100%.
And now it is totally all-Wales on the all-out attack. The French look less composed than against the 15 English men last week, but with 5 minutes to go they maintain the tiny lead. Until they cough up a kickable penalty. At 50 metres, the kick is within Lee Halfpenny's range... not quite, it goes one foot UNDER the crossbar. Wales are desperately unlucky.
The Welsh bombard the French line for the remaining 5 minutes to no avail. Wales have been beached as bro, they have their poor kicking and the red card to blame. The French will make their 3rd Rugby World Cup final, but must do much better if they play 15 men next week.
Final Score France 9 - 8 Wales
45 Games - 255 Tries
Tweet of the Match - "Rubbish. France had nothing, could barely beat 14 men. Here's hoping ABs can play them in the final. #RWC2011" @dbridges_nz
For full details of my prediction of a Welsh victory check out my Semi Final preview. I think the conditions will favour their complete game, so I am even surer that the leek will prevail tonight.
With 20 minutes to go in the build-up, I need to comment on something which has been bugging the ex-sound recordist in me. All of the "comments guys" who appear on the field in this tournament have been provided with Webb Ellis trophy "hood ornaments" for their microphones. These look ridiculous - like they've come from the $2 shop. They are in every respect wrong.
Also 65,000 punters are watching the match at the Millennium stadium in Wales - heaps more than at the actual match! That is a sure sign that the Welsh will be up for this game.
The Welsh forwards make an imperious start, with a prefect line-out followed by a 20 metre maul forward, but they have a poor case of the dropsies and lose their early advantage. Not to be outdone, the French return this with interest and soon find themselves inside the Welsh 22.
Both teams are chancing their arms, but the slippery conditions mean the pill is dropped at crucial moments. James Hook gets the first points on the scoreboard after 8 minutes, converting a penalty that seemed unjust to France. French open side Dusautoir is unfairly penalised for fairly challenging Welsh possesion. 3-0 Wales.
Prop Adam Jones, the last remaining Welsh "hair bear", leaves the park injured after 10 minutes. This is disappointing for Wales and the fans. He is a great character. But the Welsh are really on the right side of referee Alain Roubert who is penalising the French quite harshly at the early stage of this match.
Wales are looking bloody good, but don't make the most of early territory and possession. The score remains 3-0 until the 17th minute when all hell breaks lose. Welsh skipper Sam Warbuton smashes Les Bleu's winger Vincent Clerk into the turf in a semi spear tackle. He gets shown the red card, and the French will have a one man advantage for the remaining 3/4s of the match.
A yellow card would probably have been fairer. Now Wales must use a back to maintain 8 men in the pack at scrum-time. They've lost the best forward and their skipper. Disaster.
Morgan Parra soon puts the teams even, converting a scrummaging penalty, 3-3. After 22 minutes.
Wales are in big trouble. Well they would be IF France knew how to use the 1 man advantage, but they play clumsy floundering footy for the next 10 minutes and fail to look at all convincing.
Welsh fly half James Hook misses his opportunity to get his team back ahead by missing a 40 metre penalty after 28 minutes. Parra does much better with a similar kick on 36 minutes and puts the French ahead for the first time at 6-3. And that is the score at the break.
Surely if the Welsh had not lost Warbuton they would be all over France. Warren Gatland might still find a way to refocus his team and elect some tactics to get them back in it. The lacklustre French are there for the taking.
Ole! They're back.
Halftime has brought red bush tea and Mary's shortbread, delicious.
France start the half as if they were England. They are all about the kick, the drop kick and territory. They are counting on their numerical advantage of players to win the game, but like England (at this tournament) they don't have the skills to put Wales away.
Parra puts France 9-3 ahead after 49 minutes. but as we all know a 6 point lead is never safe in Rugby. Wales have subbed off the very disappointing James Hook, whose 2 missed penalties in this game are the only difference on the score board.
Paul Schrader, one of my companions watching this game, has just muttered, "You'd be pissed off if you paid $900 to watch this". And he's right (not that he needs to pay for too many tickets - jammy bugger). Pissed off until the world's biggest halfback Mike Phillips scores another huge try! This is the same giant who broke open the Irish game last week. Stephen Jones misses the conversion, but now it's a one point match. 9-8 France after 60minutes.
It's amazing that the team with 14 on the park are the first to score a try. It shows the Welsh resilience and also demonstrates the lack of French ambition. Most neutral parties to this match would be supporting Wales 100%.
And now it is totally all-Wales on the all-out attack. The French look less composed than against the 15 English men last week, but with 5 minutes to go they maintain the tiny lead. Until they cough up a kickable penalty. At 50 metres, the kick is within Lee Halfpenny's range... not quite, it goes one foot UNDER the crossbar. Wales are desperately unlucky.
The Welsh bombard the French line for the remaining 5 minutes to no avail. Wales have been beached as bro, they have their poor kicking and the red card to blame. The French will make their 3rd Rugby World Cup final, but must do much better if they play 15 men next week.
Final Score France 9 - 8 Wales
45 Games - 255 Tries
Tweet of the Match - "Rubbish. France had nothing, could barely beat 14 men. Here's hoping ABs can play them in the final. #RWC2011" @dbridges_nz
Thursday, October 13, 2011
The Semifinals. Predictions and Prayers
After 44 games and 254 tries, we are 160 minutes of rugby away from the final. Well that's if neither game goes to overtime, and looking at the match-ups one or both of them could be that close.
So what will we see?
Firstly the two remaining Northern Hemisphere teams
Saturday 15th October - Eden Park - 9pm
Wales (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries) v France (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 2 losses, 15tries)
Wales have definitely been the best team at the tournament thus far. They've escaped the ravages of injuries that have plagued most of their competitors and they have beavered away through the Rugby World Cup getting better with every game. This is really saying something because their first outing saw them get within a point of the Springboks in the cliffhanger that was Game 8.
They also had the most convincing Quarter Final victory against Ireland as they absorbed a huge amount of pressure and intensity to cooly dismiss their Celtic rivals by 12 points. The margin wasn't the highest (the All Blacks scored more) but the manner of their victory was far more emphatic. They also scored 3 superb tries in the match, which topped any other team in the Quarters.
Their strength is in playing a complete game; they are superbly drilled by kiwi coach Warren Gatland, inspirationally led by 23 year old skipper Sam Warbuton, and they seem to do everything well. They are competitive in the set piece, have flair and pace aplenty in the backs, and can defend and contest the loose ball like dervishes.
On the other hand France have been pretty much rubbish until their last game where they surprised England in the first half, got their noses in front and held on to astonish most viewers. I say astonish but really it wasn't so surprising. France have a habit of producing their best form in dribs and drabs.
The big question about this match-up is can France do it again? If they do, then they have to do more, because Wales are a better team than England. But they are capable of beating Wales on Saturday certainly. They have won their last 3 encounters after all. But I don't think they will.
I think pulling off two games on the trot will be hoping too much for French supporters.
Wales to win it by 10.
And the last two Southern Hemisphere teams standing are from around here.
Sunday 16th October - Eden Park - 9pm
New Zealand (RWC 2011, 5 wins, 38 tries) v Australia (RWC 2011, 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries)
This is a real head vs heart prediction.
The head says that Australia have had the better build up, and have played more tough rugby leading up to the game. They've had injury woes, but can still field their most crucial players in this match. The All Blacks have had an amazing preparation over the last few years (where they planned for every nth detail), but are surprisingly ragged.
The two things AB fans all knew going into the Rugby World Cup was that there is depth aplenty in New Zealand rugby, apart from in two positions; #7 and #10.
The departure of Dan Carter, then Colin Slade due to groin issues has seen a new player hoisted into the first five limelight. Aaron Cruden made an excellent debut against Argentina but he was helped in no small way by Piri Weepu. The Aussies will be targeting this combination and will try to disrupt the both of them. Expect the Wallabies to try many antics at scrum-time to disturb Weepu's kicking options, and force him to hurry the ball out to Cruden. If the Manawatu man can pass Sunday's test then he has a great future ahead of him.
The other crucial position is blind side flanker. The Wallabies David Pocock is on fire and he single-handedly saved his team against the Springboks. We all know that a fully fit Richie McCaw would probably just pip Pocock to the title of World's Best Open Side. But he isn't fully fit.
If Richie can hold parity with Pocock and lead his men, the All Blacks should be able to best the Australians. If he can't then all bets are off. So the head has its doubts about an All Black victory. But the heart says they will do it. Of course they will!
My utmost hope is that Piri in his last few minutes on the field has the gall to hold four fingers in Quade Cooper's face and say to him "Four more years!"
Sadly that's not his style, and also I don't think we'll be counting any chickens as the game goes down to the wire.
All Blacks to win a tight tight match, possibly in extra time.
So what will we see?
Firstly the two remaining Northern Hemisphere teams
Saturday 15th October - Eden Park - 9pm
Wales (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries) v France (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 2 losses, 15tries)
Wales have definitely been the best team at the tournament thus far. They've escaped the ravages of injuries that have plagued most of their competitors and they have beavered away through the Rugby World Cup getting better with every game. This is really saying something because their first outing saw them get within a point of the Springboks in the cliffhanger that was Game 8.
They also had the most convincing Quarter Final victory against Ireland as they absorbed a huge amount of pressure and intensity to cooly dismiss their Celtic rivals by 12 points. The margin wasn't the highest (the All Blacks scored more) but the manner of their victory was far more emphatic. They also scored 3 superb tries in the match, which topped any other team in the Quarters.
Their strength is in playing a complete game; they are superbly drilled by kiwi coach Warren Gatland, inspirationally led by 23 year old skipper Sam Warbuton, and they seem to do everything well. They are competitive in the set piece, have flair and pace aplenty in the backs, and can defend and contest the loose ball like dervishes.
On the other hand France have been pretty much rubbish until their last game where they surprised England in the first half, got their noses in front and held on to astonish most viewers. I say astonish but really it wasn't so surprising. France have a habit of producing their best form in dribs and drabs.
The big question about this match-up is can France do it again? If they do, then they have to do more, because Wales are a better team than England. But they are capable of beating Wales on Saturday certainly. They have won their last 3 encounters after all. But I don't think they will.
I think pulling off two games on the trot will be hoping too much for French supporters.
Wales to win it by 10.
And the last two Southern Hemisphere teams standing are from around here.
Sunday 16th October - Eden Park - 9pm
New Zealand (RWC 2011, 5 wins, 38 tries) v Australia (RWC 2011, 4 wins, 1 loss, 26 tries)
This is a real head vs heart prediction.
The head says that Australia have had the better build up, and have played more tough rugby leading up to the game. They've had injury woes, but can still field their most crucial players in this match. The All Blacks have had an amazing preparation over the last few years (where they planned for every nth detail), but are surprisingly ragged.
The two things AB fans all knew going into the Rugby World Cup was that there is depth aplenty in New Zealand rugby, apart from in two positions; #7 and #10.
The departure of Dan Carter, then Colin Slade due to groin issues has seen a new player hoisted into the first five limelight. Aaron Cruden made an excellent debut against Argentina but he was helped in no small way by Piri Weepu. The Aussies will be targeting this combination and will try to disrupt the both of them. Expect the Wallabies to try many antics at scrum-time to disturb Weepu's kicking options, and force him to hurry the ball out to Cruden. If the Manawatu man can pass Sunday's test then he has a great future ahead of him.
The other crucial position is blind side flanker. The Wallabies David Pocock is on fire and he single-handedly saved his team against the Springboks. We all know that a fully fit Richie McCaw would probably just pip Pocock to the title of World's Best Open Side. But he isn't fully fit.
If Richie can hold parity with Pocock and lead his men, the All Blacks should be able to best the Australians. If he can't then all bets are off. So the head has its doubts about an All Black victory. But the heart says they will do it. Of course they will!
My utmost hope is that Piri in his last few minutes on the field has the gall to hold four fingers in Quade Cooper's face and say to him "Four more years!"
Sadly that's not his style, and also I don't think we'll be counting any chickens as the game goes down to the wire.
All Blacks to win a tight tight match, possibly in extra time.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Game 44 - QF 4 - New Zealand v Argentina - Eden Park -- 9th Oct 2011
Here are a few of my favourite things from this match...
no live blogging!
My beautiful wife Megan out of hospital for the night.
The warmth of the Schrader-Daish safe haven.
Our twins safe inside Meggy's belly.
Glorious Mary Daish - Toad in the Hole in all our bellies.
Mils running on alone for his 100th test, then his tears during the anthem.
Kapa o Pango!
A white Steinie apiece for Schrader and Me.
Piri's first penalty straight and true.
Conrad's scrambling defence.
The Double Kick; Piri to Cory to Mils.
Los Pumas throwing the ball over the dead ball line.
Taking the 3 when it is there.
6-0 after 25 minutes.
Los Pumas scoring a huge upset first try. (7-6 after 32 mins)
Piri 3/3 after 35 minutes... and back in the lead.
Aaron Cruden stepping up.
A 12-7 All Black lead at half time. (Better than being behind)
I hope Cory Jane doesn't have a fag in the changing rooms.
The only gay ref in the village.
Spider cam.
A pink panther in the crowd (but back to 12-10 ahead).
Piri 100% from 9 kicks at RWC... and a 15-10 lead.
SBW's offload and haircut.
Aaron's Ma'averlous break.
Kevin Mealamu human ball bearing.
At last an 8 point lead! 58 minute wait mind. 18-10 ABs.
At last an All Black try to Kieran Read. 23-10 after 67mins PHEW.
Jerome Kaino - everywhere and hard as nails.
Piri's 7/8 kicks, he has some nerve and is Man of the Match 26-10. 72 mins gone
Brad Thorn's try (almost with Zimmerframe) 33-10
Cory Jane you have redeemed yourself.
Final Score New Zealand 33 - 10 Argentina
44 Games - 254 Tries
Tweet of the Match - "Weepu of Mass Destruction!!!" @RaybonKan
no live blogging!
My beautiful wife Megan out of hospital for the night.
The warmth of the Schrader-Daish safe haven.
Our twins safe inside Meggy's belly.
Glorious Mary Daish - Toad in the Hole in all our bellies.
Mils running on alone for his 100th test, then his tears during the anthem.
Kapa o Pango!
A white Steinie apiece for Schrader and Me.
Piri's first penalty straight and true.
Conrad's scrambling defence.
The Double Kick; Piri to Cory to Mils.
Los Pumas throwing the ball over the dead ball line.
Taking the 3 when it is there.
6-0 after 25 minutes.
Los Pumas scoring a huge upset first try. (7-6 after 32 mins)
Piri 3/3 after 35 minutes... and back in the lead.
Aaron Cruden stepping up.
A 12-7 All Black lead at half time. (Better than being behind)
I hope Cory Jane doesn't have a fag in the changing rooms.
The only gay ref in the village.
Spider cam.
A pink panther in the crowd (but back to 12-10 ahead).
Piri 100% from 9 kicks at RWC... and a 15-10 lead.
SBW's offload and haircut.
Aaron's Ma'averlous break.
Kevin Mealamu human ball bearing.
At last an 8 point lead! 58 minute wait mind. 18-10 ABs.
At last an All Black try to Kieran Read. 23-10 after 67mins PHEW.
Jerome Kaino - everywhere and hard as nails.
Piri's 7/8 kicks, he has some nerve and is Man of the Match 26-10. 72 mins gone
Brad Thorn's try (almost with Zimmerframe) 33-10
Cory Jane you have redeemed yourself.
Final Score New Zealand 33 - 10 Argentina
44 Games - 254 Tries
Tweet of the Match - "Weepu of Mass Destruction!!!" @RaybonKan
Game 43 - QF 3 - Australia v South Africa -Wellington Regional Stadium -- 9th Oct 2011
We've broken Megan out of hospital! So whatever happens in the next 80 minutes of footy is a bonus.
Our wonderful friends Paul and Mary live a stone's throw from the maternity ward, and they're feeding us Toad in the Hole while we watch this evening's rugby feast.
If you've read my Quadter Final Prediction you'll know I think the Australians will win this match. So much so that I've gone double or quits with a winning bet from last night's French victory on the Wallabies today.
The conditions are absolutely perfect at the Cake Tin. The first 10 minutes of the half are all Bokke. They are attempting to monster the Wallabies aside. But the Aussies are hanging in there. I think they'll try and absorb the initial Springbok pressure and not try to leak too many points, then strike like a viper in their own time.
Ha Ha! After 10 minutes under the pump. The Wallabies get great field position from a Quade Cooper kick, and their back-line pounced on the surprised Boks. Magnificent skipper James Halwell busts over for the try. Bieber (James O'Connor) fluffs his conversion though. 5-0 Australia after 13 minutes.
From the restart Kurtley Beale goes through the South Africans like a dose of salts. He breaks through to the Springbok twenty two, passes to a fatty who spills it. The Wallabies look red hot. Their pressure is rewarded by a penalty. This time Bieber pops it over. 8-0 Wallabies after 17 minutes.
The Springboks are too organised a side to give up though and they put the heat back on the Wallabies. Quade Cooper is possibly one of the finest rugby players in the world but he's definitely the most unpredictable. He tries to run the ball from his right hand corner and gets nowhere.
The Boks put the blowtorch on the Australians but their hearts must sink as Henrich Brussow limps off the field. He's been their best player thus far at the cup and he's gone for the duration. Kiwi ref Bryce Lawrence does them no favours either as he misses some Wallaby hands in a ruck under their own posts. The Aussies survive yet again!
Morne Steyn misses a 52 metre penalty on 28 minutes. His namesake Francois would probably have nailed that. If the Springboks had played this way in any other game thus far they'd have a comfortable advantage by now. But the Wallabies are not an ordinary opposition, with players named Kurtley, Digby and Quade you can't expect predictable.
My favourite Springbok Bryan Habana is the next South African in the wars. He takes a huge knock to the scone and looks like he is in cloud cuckoo land. His team are playing with great enterprise and 100% commitment, but they simply don't have the final 5% of brilliance to bust the Australian defence.
They've turned the ball over 12 times in the first 35 minutes, and you can't do that and beat a world class opposition.
A replay shows that Radike Samo put a cheap-shot shoulder charge into Habana's head in a tackle. I'm currently cheering for Gold but that will change if they keep on like that. Morne slots a penalty on the 39th minute. Then he has another awarded for the last play of the half. It is a huge 55 metre plus effort which he understandably misses. The score is 8-3 at half time.
The South Africans have tried everything and not cracked the Aussies yet - they will need to keep it up in the next half. I think that if the Wallabies can score first in the next 40 they might be able to hold them out, but they cant afford to switch off at any stage.
The first ten minutes of the second spell are more of the same. The South Africans are big and strong in the set piece. The Wallabies are scrambling in defence and dangerous in the counter attack. The Springboks bust the Wallaby line at 45 minutes and look to score a try, but the vital final pass was correctly adjudged forward by Lawrence.
Habana is showing the pride of a lion. He's had some sickening blows to his cranium, but he has stayed on the park by virtue of sheer courage alone. Sadly he and his skipper Smit are subbed out after 50 minutes of play.
The Wallabies are in real trouble at scrum time. It is in the set piece where the Bokke have a clear advantage, but they are unable to find gaps to capitalise on this superiority. But the Wallabies are losing discipline and have coughed up a kickable penalty - that is meat and drink to Steyn. 8-6 to the Wallabies after 55 minutes.
The Springboks don't need tries to win anymore. 3 points will do it. They'll aim to camp in the Australian half and wait for mistakes. The Wallabies surely need a try or they won't hold the South Africans out.
The Springboks take the lead with a Morne drop goal bang on the 60 minute mark. The Wallabies need to play some footy now. 9-8 RSA. Morne is controlling the game, and his opposite Quade Cooper looks seriously rattled - he needs to find his mojo or his team will not get back nto this match. He has a shocking brain explosion at 63 minutes as he kicks valuable possession out on the full with an ill-timed and terrible kick.
Should Deans take him off? Should the Wallabies have Matt Giteau in the reserves? 15 minutes left to find out.
The difference in the game right now is hunger. None of the Australian game breakers; Samo, Genia, Cooper, Beale or Ioane seem to want to do the damage themselves. They need to tough it out and get some hard yards. Patrick Lambie misses a drop kick on 68 minutes. The Aussies need a team talk or something.
Berrick Barnes looks like he wants to be "that guy" for Oz. His kicking is gaining the Aussies some momentum, but they don't have the skills in the set piece to make advantage of the easy yards... UNTIL the Boks have an unusual lapse of discipline and concede a tough but kickable penalty. "Oh Baby Baby Baby!" O'Connor puts the Wallabies back in front. 11-9 Australia with 8 minutes to go.
If the Springboks can score again - anything - a penalty, a drop or a try I'm sure they'll win. But that is a big "if". They throw everything at the Wallabies in the last minutes, but can't do it.
We will have a new World Champion from this tournament - the Springboks are gone. Not from lack of effort, but possibly from lack of enterprise. The team who scored the only try wins the game. I love it when that happens.
Final Score Australia 11 - 9 South Africa
43 Games 251 Trues
Tweet of the Match - "Can hear Waltzing Matilda being sung at the stadium from up at our place" @bbqbevo (He lives in Ngaio, some 4 km from the Stadium!)
Our wonderful friends Paul and Mary live a stone's throw from the maternity ward, and they're feeding us Toad in the Hole while we watch this evening's rugby feast.
If you've read my Quadter Final Prediction you'll know I think the Australians will win this match. So much so that I've gone double or quits with a winning bet from last night's French victory on the Wallabies today.
The conditions are absolutely perfect at the Cake Tin. The first 10 minutes of the half are all Bokke. They are attempting to monster the Wallabies aside. But the Aussies are hanging in there. I think they'll try and absorb the initial Springbok pressure and not try to leak too many points, then strike like a viper in their own time.
Ha Ha! After 10 minutes under the pump. The Wallabies get great field position from a Quade Cooper kick, and their back-line pounced on the surprised Boks. Magnificent skipper James Halwell busts over for the try. Bieber (James O'Connor) fluffs his conversion though. 5-0 Australia after 13 minutes.
From the restart Kurtley Beale goes through the South Africans like a dose of salts. He breaks through to the Springbok twenty two, passes to a fatty who spills it. The Wallabies look red hot. Their pressure is rewarded by a penalty. This time Bieber pops it over. 8-0 Wallabies after 17 minutes.
The Springboks are too organised a side to give up though and they put the heat back on the Wallabies. Quade Cooper is possibly one of the finest rugby players in the world but he's definitely the most unpredictable. He tries to run the ball from his right hand corner and gets nowhere.
The Boks put the blowtorch on the Australians but their hearts must sink as Henrich Brussow limps off the field. He's been their best player thus far at the cup and he's gone for the duration. Kiwi ref Bryce Lawrence does them no favours either as he misses some Wallaby hands in a ruck under their own posts. The Aussies survive yet again!
Morne Steyn misses a 52 metre penalty on 28 minutes. His namesake Francois would probably have nailed that. If the Springboks had played this way in any other game thus far they'd have a comfortable advantage by now. But the Wallabies are not an ordinary opposition, with players named Kurtley, Digby and Quade you can't expect predictable.
My favourite Springbok Bryan Habana is the next South African in the wars. He takes a huge knock to the scone and looks like he is in cloud cuckoo land. His team are playing with great enterprise and 100% commitment, but they simply don't have the final 5% of brilliance to bust the Australian defence.
They've turned the ball over 12 times in the first 35 minutes, and you can't do that and beat a world class opposition.
A replay shows that Radike Samo put a cheap-shot shoulder charge into Habana's head in a tackle. I'm currently cheering for Gold but that will change if they keep on like that. Morne slots a penalty on the 39th minute. Then he has another awarded for the last play of the half. It is a huge 55 metre plus effort which he understandably misses. The score is 8-3 at half time.
The South Africans have tried everything and not cracked the Aussies yet - they will need to keep it up in the next half. I think that if the Wallabies can score first in the next 40 they might be able to hold them out, but they cant afford to switch off at any stage.
The first ten minutes of the second spell are more of the same. The South Africans are big and strong in the set piece. The Wallabies are scrambling in defence and dangerous in the counter attack. The Springboks bust the Wallaby line at 45 minutes and look to score a try, but the vital final pass was correctly adjudged forward by Lawrence.
Habana is showing the pride of a lion. He's had some sickening blows to his cranium, but he has stayed on the park by virtue of sheer courage alone. Sadly he and his skipper Smit are subbed out after 50 minutes of play.
The Wallabies are in real trouble at scrum time. It is in the set piece where the Bokke have a clear advantage, but they are unable to find gaps to capitalise on this superiority. But the Wallabies are losing discipline and have coughed up a kickable penalty - that is meat and drink to Steyn. 8-6 to the Wallabies after 55 minutes.
The Springboks don't need tries to win anymore. 3 points will do it. They'll aim to camp in the Australian half and wait for mistakes. The Wallabies surely need a try or they won't hold the South Africans out.
The Springboks take the lead with a Morne drop goal bang on the 60 minute mark. The Wallabies need to play some footy now. 9-8 RSA. Morne is controlling the game, and his opposite Quade Cooper looks seriously rattled - he needs to find his mojo or his team will not get back nto this match. He has a shocking brain explosion at 63 minutes as he kicks valuable possession out on the full with an ill-timed and terrible kick.
Should Deans take him off? Should the Wallabies have Matt Giteau in the reserves? 15 minutes left to find out.
The difference in the game right now is hunger. None of the Australian game breakers; Samo, Genia, Cooper, Beale or Ioane seem to want to do the damage themselves. They need to tough it out and get some hard yards. Patrick Lambie misses a drop kick on 68 minutes. The Aussies need a team talk or something.
Berrick Barnes looks like he wants to be "that guy" for Oz. His kicking is gaining the Aussies some momentum, but they don't have the skills in the set piece to make advantage of the easy yards... UNTIL the Boks have an unusual lapse of discipline and concede a tough but kickable penalty. "Oh Baby Baby Baby!" O'Connor puts the Wallabies back in front. 11-9 Australia with 8 minutes to go.
If the Springboks can score again - anything - a penalty, a drop or a try I'm sure they'll win. But that is a big "if". They throw everything at the Wallabies in the last minutes, but can't do it.
We will have a new World Champion from this tournament - the Springboks are gone. Not from lack of effort, but possibly from lack of enterprise. The team who scored the only try wins the game. I love it when that happens.
Final Score Australia 11 - 9 South Africa
43 Games 251 Trues
Tweet of the Match - "Can hear Waltzing Matilda being sung at the stadium from up at our place" @bbqbevo (He lives in Ngaio, some 4 km from the Stadium!)
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Quad Nations Quarters - The Sunday Quarter Finals - More Bold Predictions
As of next year, the increasingly stale Tri Nations competition is being refreshed into a Quad Nations instead. And serving as a promo for the rugby fest we can look forward to, are these two matches between the 4 teams in question. It's like a marketer's dream! So who will prevail? Here are my two cents worth.
Game 3 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
South Africa (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 2) vs Australia (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 3)
After an indifferent Tri Nations campaign, the Springboks have surprised us all thus far in the tournament. They seemed rusty first up against Wales. But looked imposing when they demolished Fiji the following week. By the time they smashed their Namibian neighbours 87-0 in Albany in the tournament's most emphatic game, the Bokke seemed almost imperious.
They have won 4 games, scored 166 points and 21 tries as they triumphed in Pool D, boasting the second best defence (to England) in the Pool rounds, conceding just 2 tries. They also have clearly the best goal kicking at the RWC, with Morne Steyn missing just one attempt in all of the matches played. Losing long kicking range specialist Francois Steyn to injury has been a blow, but probably won't make too much difference in this match.
The Springboks won't be counting any chickens yet. Last weeks 13-5 scare to Samoa was no doubt timely, because there is no way they will be coming to today's fixture with any sense of complacency.
Their foes in this game - the fiendish Wallabies - have been painted as sub-par at this tournament. But I question this. Yes they were unprepared for the Irish onslaught at Eden Park in Game 16, but I said back then that the Wallabies would "like a cockroach... doubtless survive this spray of poison and be back for more later in the tournie". And here they are having scored 173 points and 25 tries.
Despite the All Black's headline hogging, the Wallabies have had the worst run of any team with injuries at the tournament, even resorting to playing big #8 Radike Samo on the wing as they've awaited reinforcements. But as they say when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
As an All Black fan, I'd love to see the Australians dip out of contention tonight. Despite their injury woes they still have the most menacing back line in the competition, and their forward pack can be an absolute handfull. But the very reasons I want to see them gone, are just why they'll win this and win it comfortably.
The Australians are capable of playing irrepressible attacking rugby - the kind of play which is almost impossible to prepare for. The Springboks are only about systems and planning - they don't have flair anywhere except for the two wingers. Peter De Villiers has made his team seem formidable for several weeks, but the Samoans nearly burst their bubble. I think coach Robbie Deans will send a clear message with this game, and we'll see the Wallabies post an emphatic victory.
I really can't envisage any other result.
Game 4 - 8.30pm Eden Park
New Zealand (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 1) vs Argentina (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 9)
The All Blacks have once drawn with Argentina. It was in 1985, at the nadir of All Black teams... as Paul Kelly sang "They say the darkest hour is just before the dawn". And I remember watching this 21-21 draw at some strange hour of the morning, and thinking that the great All Blacks would never live it down.
Now here they are playing Los Pumas in a Quarter Final of a Rugby World Cup. And a none too shabby side either for that matter. The Argentinians have performed solidly at this tournament, but they haven't exactly lit it up. They came 2nd in Pool B, having nearly surprised England in Game 5. But they've only scored 90 points and just 10 tries.
A real factor in this low tally is the woeful place kicking of the otherwise inspirational (and delightfully named) first five Felipe Contempomi. If they were able to turn pressure into points they'd probably be able to keep things respectable against the All Blacks. This is because they have a great pack, and they are World Class in set piece play. But that is a big "if".
New Zealand have been the best team at the tournament thus far in terms of playing attacking footy. They've scored 240 points and a whopping 36 tries, averaging 9 tries per game in totally dominating Pool A. On the down side is a poor place kicking conversion rate, and a surprisingly soft defence. They've leaked 6 tries already at the tournament including 4 to genuine minnows Tonga, Canada and Japan.
Also on the down side is the uncertainty in team selection. The All Blacks play this game with a make shift halfback-first five combination, a Captain who can't run at training and with many of their first choice players unavailable. It shouldn't matter this week. I think the All Blacks will very comfortably account for Argentina. By this I mean a victory of 25 points or over.
The disappointing thing for them is that whatever the score tonight, they can't feel ready for next week given the state of their stocks right now.
Game 3 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
South Africa (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 2) vs Australia (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 3)
After an indifferent Tri Nations campaign, the Springboks have surprised us all thus far in the tournament. They seemed rusty first up against Wales. But looked imposing when they demolished Fiji the following week. By the time they smashed their Namibian neighbours 87-0 in Albany in the tournament's most emphatic game, the Bokke seemed almost imperious.
They have won 4 games, scored 166 points and 21 tries as they triumphed in Pool D, boasting the second best defence (to England) in the Pool rounds, conceding just 2 tries. They also have clearly the best goal kicking at the RWC, with Morne Steyn missing just one attempt in all of the matches played. Losing long kicking range specialist Francois Steyn to injury has been a blow, but probably won't make too much difference in this match.
The Springboks won't be counting any chickens yet. Last weeks 13-5 scare to Samoa was no doubt timely, because there is no way they will be coming to today's fixture with any sense of complacency.
Their foes in this game - the fiendish Wallabies - have been painted as sub-par at this tournament. But I question this. Yes they were unprepared for the Irish onslaught at Eden Park in Game 16, but I said back then that the Wallabies would "like a cockroach... doubtless survive this spray of poison and be back for more later in the tournie". And here they are having scored 173 points and 25 tries.
Despite the All Black's headline hogging, the Wallabies have had the worst run of any team with injuries at the tournament, even resorting to playing big #8 Radike Samo on the wing as they've awaited reinforcements. But as they say when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
As an All Black fan, I'd love to see the Australians dip out of contention tonight. Despite their injury woes they still have the most menacing back line in the competition, and their forward pack can be an absolute handfull. But the very reasons I want to see them gone, are just why they'll win this and win it comfortably.
The Australians are capable of playing irrepressible attacking rugby - the kind of play which is almost impossible to prepare for. The Springboks are only about systems and planning - they don't have flair anywhere except for the two wingers. Peter De Villiers has made his team seem formidable for several weeks, but the Samoans nearly burst their bubble. I think coach Robbie Deans will send a clear message with this game, and we'll see the Wallabies post an emphatic victory.
I really can't envisage any other result.
Game 4 - 8.30pm Eden Park
New Zealand (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 1) vs Argentina (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 9)
The All Blacks have once drawn with Argentina. It was in 1985, at the nadir of All Black teams... as Paul Kelly sang "They say the darkest hour is just before the dawn". And I remember watching this 21-21 draw at some strange hour of the morning, and thinking that the great All Blacks would never live it down.
Now here they are playing Los Pumas in a Quarter Final of a Rugby World Cup. And a none too shabby side either for that matter. The Argentinians have performed solidly at this tournament, but they haven't exactly lit it up. They came 2nd in Pool B, having nearly surprised England in Game 5. But they've only scored 90 points and just 10 tries.
A real factor in this low tally is the woeful place kicking of the otherwise inspirational (and delightfully named) first five Felipe Contempomi. If they were able to turn pressure into points they'd probably be able to keep things respectable against the All Blacks. This is because they have a great pack, and they are World Class in set piece play. But that is a big "if".
New Zealand have been the best team at the tournament thus far in terms of playing attacking footy. They've scored 240 points and a whopping 36 tries, averaging 9 tries per game in totally dominating Pool A. On the down side is a poor place kicking conversion rate, and a surprisingly soft defence. They've leaked 6 tries already at the tournament including 4 to genuine minnows Tonga, Canada and Japan.
Also on the down side is the uncertainty in team selection. The All Blacks play this game with a make shift halfback-first five combination, a Captain who can't run at training and with many of their first choice players unavailable. It shouldn't matter this week. I think the All Blacks will very comfortably account for Argentina. By this I mean a victory of 25 points or over.
The disappointing thing for them is that whatever the score tonight, they can't feel ready for next week given the state of their stocks right now.
Game 42- QF 2 - England v France - Eden Park -- 8th Oct 2011
I've relocated from Wellington Hospital to our friends Paul, Mary and Zeb's house for this second match. I'll be writing my post on my iPad. Megan will keep watching the game alone and will sub edit via email on the Macbook.
Our ability to do this is testimony to the vision of Steve Jobs. We both found out about his sad passing midweek, and like many people discovered the news on one or other of his devices. When I watched the 1987 World Cup, I would never have thought I would ever own a single computer, let alone the plethora of iDevices we now share.
It is a perfect footy night in Auckland, and Eden Park looks jam packed. I wonder if my mate Gordo is there tonight. He is an inexplicably enthusiastic Francophile. As per usual the French win the anthems, but that hasn't done them any good thus far in the tournament.
Readers of my crazy prediction this afternoon will know that I am predicting a shock French victory, they will also know I ballsed up the result of the last match, so take it with a grain of salt.
England show their hand early and opt to spin it wide and have a crack at the French. The French are showing some resistance but the game is only 4 minutes old. The French are playing in a crazy Latin style; there is a hint of filth in their tackling, and an air of unpredictable in their opportunism.
It looks at this early stage that the real France has shown up tonight - 4 weeks late for the tournament. After 8 minutes to the surprise of everyone they score first - a penalty on 11 minutes slotted by Dimitri Yachvilli. 3-0 France. Allez Allez
And they don't stop there. Moments later they are playing as one; both forwards and backs spin the ball and fluster the English. Save the bright start, the men in white have barely touched the ball. The English pack try to sort the frisky frogs out at scrum time, but are penalised for collapsing. Yachvilli nails the kick. 6-0 France after 15 minutes.
The English can normally depend on their kickers to maximize their return in encounters like this, but all through the RWC their conversion rate has been poor. Also the French also are not making their usual mistakes. They aren't giving away penalties and they are keeping hold of the pill.
Hold the phone! Dusautoir steals an English line out - the ball spins rapidly through the backs and into the hands of Vincent Clerc and he scores his 5th try of the tournament. He had plenty to do too! The English are completely missing in action. Luckily for them the conversion is missed. 11-0 France after 23 minutes.
Amusingly Toby Flood attempts one of the poorest drop kicks of the tournament, at 25 minutes in. If England want to get back into the game 3 points at a time might not be enough. What they need to do is get the ball to the only non-Englishman in their 15. Manu Tuilagi has looked likely a couple of times now, and he's the only player in white standing up.
On 30 minutes the French are at it again. Inspirational skipper Thierry Dusautoir busts out of a maul and nearly scores himself. They spin the ball and commit the English to two more rucks before getting the ball outside to the quicks. The French Werewolf in Auckland, Maxime Medard, grabs another try. The only thing in favour of the Poms is the poor French kicking - another 2 points squandered. 16-0. 7 minutes to go in the half.
Momentum is a funny thing. The English all but score a try on the verge of half time, twice, but they butcher both chances. If they'd scored there they might be apart by just 9 points. Instead the teams head to the sheds 16-0. That is a huge hill for the English to traverse come the second spell.
Ole, they're back on!
Many thanks to Mary for the delicious halftime Walnut, Chocolate, Honey tart, it tastes even better than it sounds! A halftime text from Auckland pal Anthony states, "respect the Coq, The French have come to play... brilliant defence and back play". Well said Anthony.
Wilkinson and Flood have swapped positions, and it seems to be a cunning ploy. The French don't look quite as composed on defence as in the first half. The English need to try something desperate because they are a long way out of this game, with 33 minutes left to play.
I'm starting to wonder if the French think they have enough points to win this. They seem intent to let the English run the ball at them and then hit them with everything they've got.
At 53 minutes the English pass up a kickable penalty for a foray at the French line. They're rewarded as Ben Fowden picks up a snappy try. Wilkinson has his first shot at goal after 54 minutes! He slots it 16-7. This will be an intesting 25 minutes ahead.
France's replacement for Yachvili is Francois Trinh-Duc and he seems to be there for his tactical kicking. He has pegged the English back in their 22 several times since coming onto the park. This is forcing the English to have a go from anywhere, and while we admire their enterprise, their big pack is looking ragged.
With 62 minutes gone I'd say any score from France will win the game. And Jonny can't win it for the English - he's subbed off while the game hangs in the balance.
The English are showing great spirit. And they are denied more points by the bounce of the ball. The French seem intent to just stand wait for English errors.
68 minutes in and the score remains 16-7, with play camped down in the English 22. The commentators, Foxy in particular, are sensing le drop. If it happens it may well be le all over for England. To Foxy's delight his script is followed at 72 minutes! Trinh-Duc slots it and the 19-7 lead is a huge one.
The Trinh-Duc substitution is looking totally inspired right now. Am I the only person dreading the 1987 rematch at Eden Park? This French team are unrecognisable from the impostors of the previous fortnight.
Before we get too carried away with French rejoicing we go upstairs to the TMO for an interminable age, before Mark Cueto is awarded a try to put England right back in it. Flood misses the conversion - probably the most important kick of his life, can you believe that? The score is now 19-12 with 2 minutes left.
A brutal French maul saps England's hopes. A penalty is awarded. Parra sportingly attempts the goal and hits the posts, but the ball flies over the dead ball line.
Sacre Bleu! Another boil-over. The brilliant French deserve this win 100-120%.
Final Score France 19 - 12 England
42 games 250 tries.
Tweet of the match - "In a change of strategy, England are having the forwards knock the ball on in this half. #rwc2011" @publicaddress
Our ability to do this is testimony to the vision of Steve Jobs. We both found out about his sad passing midweek, and like many people discovered the news on one or other of his devices. When I watched the 1987 World Cup, I would never have thought I would ever own a single computer, let alone the plethora of iDevices we now share.
It is a perfect footy night in Auckland, and Eden Park looks jam packed. I wonder if my mate Gordo is there tonight. He is an inexplicably enthusiastic Francophile. As per usual the French win the anthems, but that hasn't done them any good thus far in the tournament.
Readers of my crazy prediction this afternoon will know that I am predicting a shock French victory, they will also know I ballsed up the result of the last match, so take it with a grain of salt.
England show their hand early and opt to spin it wide and have a crack at the French. The French are showing some resistance but the game is only 4 minutes old. The French are playing in a crazy Latin style; there is a hint of filth in their tackling, and an air of unpredictable in their opportunism.
It looks at this early stage that the real France has shown up tonight - 4 weeks late for the tournament. After 8 minutes to the surprise of everyone they score first - a penalty on 11 minutes slotted by Dimitri Yachvilli. 3-0 France. Allez Allez
And they don't stop there. Moments later they are playing as one; both forwards and backs spin the ball and fluster the English. Save the bright start, the men in white have barely touched the ball. The English pack try to sort the frisky frogs out at scrum time, but are penalised for collapsing. Yachvilli nails the kick. 6-0 France after 15 minutes.
The English can normally depend on their kickers to maximize their return in encounters like this, but all through the RWC their conversion rate has been poor. Also the French also are not making their usual mistakes. They aren't giving away penalties and they are keeping hold of the pill.
Hold the phone! Dusautoir steals an English line out - the ball spins rapidly through the backs and into the hands of Vincent Clerc and he scores his 5th try of the tournament. He had plenty to do too! The English are completely missing in action. Luckily for them the conversion is missed. 11-0 France after 23 minutes.
Amusingly Toby Flood attempts one of the poorest drop kicks of the tournament, at 25 minutes in. If England want to get back into the game 3 points at a time might not be enough. What they need to do is get the ball to the only non-Englishman in their 15. Manu Tuilagi has looked likely a couple of times now, and he's the only player in white standing up.
On 30 minutes the French are at it again. Inspirational skipper Thierry Dusautoir busts out of a maul and nearly scores himself. They spin the ball and commit the English to two more rucks before getting the ball outside to the quicks. The French Werewolf in Auckland, Maxime Medard, grabs another try. The only thing in favour of the Poms is the poor French kicking - another 2 points squandered. 16-0. 7 minutes to go in the half.
Momentum is a funny thing. The English all but score a try on the verge of half time, twice, but they butcher both chances. If they'd scored there they might be apart by just 9 points. Instead the teams head to the sheds 16-0. That is a huge hill for the English to traverse come the second spell.
Ole, they're back on!
Many thanks to Mary for the delicious halftime Walnut, Chocolate, Honey tart, it tastes even better than it sounds! A halftime text from Auckland pal Anthony states, "respect the Coq, The French have come to play... brilliant defence and back play". Well said Anthony.
Wilkinson and Flood have swapped positions, and it seems to be a cunning ploy. The French don't look quite as composed on defence as in the first half. The English need to try something desperate because they are a long way out of this game, with 33 minutes left to play.
I'm starting to wonder if the French think they have enough points to win this. They seem intent to let the English run the ball at them and then hit them with everything they've got.
At 53 minutes the English pass up a kickable penalty for a foray at the French line. They're rewarded as Ben Fowden picks up a snappy try. Wilkinson has his first shot at goal after 54 minutes! He slots it 16-7. This will be an intesting 25 minutes ahead.
France's replacement for Yachvili is Francois Trinh-Duc and he seems to be there for his tactical kicking. He has pegged the English back in their 22 several times since coming onto the park. This is forcing the English to have a go from anywhere, and while we admire their enterprise, their big pack is looking ragged.
With 62 minutes gone I'd say any score from France will win the game. And Jonny can't win it for the English - he's subbed off while the game hangs in the balance.
The English are showing great spirit. And they are denied more points by the bounce of the ball. The French seem intent to just stand wait for English errors.
68 minutes in and the score remains 16-7, with play camped down in the English 22. The commentators, Foxy in particular, are sensing le drop. If it happens it may well be le all over for England. To Foxy's delight his script is followed at 72 minutes! Trinh-Duc slots it and the 19-7 lead is a huge one.
The Trinh-Duc substitution is looking totally inspired right now. Am I the only person dreading the 1987 rematch at Eden Park? This French team are unrecognisable from the impostors of the previous fortnight.
Before we get too carried away with French rejoicing we go upstairs to the TMO for an interminable age, before Mark Cueto is awarded a try to put England right back in it. Flood misses the conversion - probably the most important kick of his life, can you believe that? The score is now 19-12 with 2 minutes left.
A brutal French maul saps England's hopes. A penalty is awarded. Parra sportingly attempts the goal and hits the posts, but the ball flies over the dead ball line.
Sacre Bleu! Another boil-over. The brilliant French deserve this win 100-120%.
Final Score France 19 - 12 England
42 games 250 tries.
Tweet of the match - "In a change of strategy, England are having the forwards knock the ball on in this half. #rwc2011" @publicaddress
Game 41- QF 1 - Ireland v Wales -Wellington Regional Stadium -- 8th Oct 2011title
For my bold predictions for this match and the following England v France game, check out my Saturday Quarter Final Predictions post from this arvo.
Firstly, a quick nod to where I'm watching the game. Megan is in hospital for intensive twin monitoring, during the countdown to their impending arrival. She is 28 weeks pregnant, and complications mean they will definitely be delivered by the 32 week mark. It sounds scary, but she has taken it all in her stride.
They say behind every great man there is a great woman... well behind these posts has been her spectre looming large; as my IT guru, brilliant sub-editor and co-author of some of the finest witticisms. We can't break up this team, so I'll be watching this important match on her tiny 21 inch Hospital TV. The sound comes out of a little telephone-like speaker, and we need to crook our necks to the roof to see the screen....not that we're complaining - these issues can be defined as "first world problems". That said, if I miss any of the game's finer nuances, it is probably because they were too hard to spot!
Wales fire the first salvo with a magnificent anthem!
It is amusing watching the game on Maori TV on this tiny TV set. The combination of the tiny screen and Keith Quinn's commentary makes me feel like I'm back in 1985! Also the big monstering start by the Welsh forwards is of a previous epic era. They hammer away at the Irish line and set up a marvellous try to speedy right winger Shane Williams. The try is converted 7-0 after just 4 minutes.
The Irish rise to this challenge, and earn a kickable penalty on the Welsh line moments later. They turn down the 3 points, and go for a line-out, TWICE. This is a statement, Ireland want their points 5 at a time at least. But it's not to be the Welsh repel the Celtic hoards and Ireland will be rueing their brave decision.
Still 7-0 after 10 minutes.
Amazingly on 15 minutes the Irish again refuse to kick for 3 points. This is either brilliant or crazy. They get closer this time and get the ball over the Welsh line, but are held up. The Irish scrum looks solid. They keep pounding on the Welsh line but Ronan O'Gara drops the pill. Oh No! The Welsh relieve the pressure, still 7-0 with 19 minutes played.
The Irish nearly score from a lovely break from fullback Rob Carney. Another penalty is conceded by Wales - this time they Irish take the 3 points on offer as O'Gara slots it. It is almost disappointing they've seen sense, but it is a boon they are back in the game. 7-3 after 24 minutes. It could be 7-9!
Almost immediately the Welsh attempt a three pointer of their own. I guess it is inevitable the game will settle down to a kick fest, but the first 20 minutes were some of the most entertaining of the whole tournament so far. Leigh Halfpenny bangs it over from round 50 metres. 10-3 to Wales after 29 minutes.
The Irish aren't finished with running footy yet. Soon they are camped back on the Welsh try-line for the third time in the match. This really is a great match. Ronan O'Gara is being extremely influential - his kicking game is gaining the Irish plenty of cheap yards.
But despite making the lion's share of the enterprise the Irish can't turn the pressure into points. They head to the sheds with Wales ahead by 10-3.
It seems the Irish will have the wind at their backs in the second half. Whether or not it is a 7 point breeze will be discovered in the next 40 minutes. Within minutes of kickoff the Irish are camped back on the Welsh line, and they have their tails up.
Ireland score an almost infeasible try to left winger Keith Earls - the two try hero from the Italian match. They looked to have absolutely butchered it, as the pass was hurled to Earls on the bounce. He gathers, sprints and begins his dive a full 6 metres from the line. The TMO shows that he fairly scored the 5 pointer in almost worm-like fashion. Ronan O'Gara slots a very difficult conversion and the score is tied at 10 apiece after 46 minutes. Rugby is the winner at the moment!
Ireland's try spurs the Welsh back into action. They have been simply soaking up Irish pressure since scoring first. They'll need to do more now, and they know it. Massive halfback Mike Phillips scores with a delightful swan dive in the left Irish corner. Welcome to Game On! country. 15-10 Wales after 51 minutes.
There is a huge turning point in the match after 58 minutes. The Welsh earn a kickable penalty and Halfpenny hits the post. If it had gone over then the Welsh would have a very defendable 8 point lead, but it doesn't. Ireland could still be ahead with a converted try, and everyone knows it.
Jonathan Sexton is on for O'Gara. He isn't quite as dependable with place kicking, but seems to have a bigger bag of open play kicking tricks. His boot will face the most important 20 minutes of its career.
Well I never, Jonathan Davis begins a run at the Irish defence from beyond the 22 metre line. Nobody wants to tackle him and he is allowed to monster over for the 3rd Welsh try. The score favours the Leeks 22-10 after 65 minutes. It is Wales' game to lose.
Or Ireland's to win! They assault the Welsh line and have them at their mercy... only to knock on. There are 12 minutes left.
With 8 minutes to go Megan exclaims "The Irish need a miracle." But it seems it isn't going to happen. Again the Welsh hit the post with a penalty, but Ireland aren't making the play enough. The Welsh are looking well worth their 12 point lead.
The Welsh are managing to contain the multiple Irish assaults by committing fewer forwards to the rucks. Their back line is chockfull of big hulking forward units as well as all the backs. The Irish simply can't find a way through and run out of time.
Wales become the second Welsh side to progress to a World Cup Semi, and they thoroughly deserve it.
Ireland were valiant and never gave up, but that wasn't enough.
Final Score Wales 22-10 Ireland
41 games 246 tries.
Tweet of the match - "The Welsh are playing like it's the end of the world. Have switched allegiances. Go Wales!" @mattgeeknz ... Matt is a beloved friend of ours and is ordinarily disinterested in all sport, particularly rugby. The fact that he watched this game in the first place, let alone felt allegiance to either team, says it all.
Firstly, a quick nod to where I'm watching the game. Megan is in hospital for intensive twin monitoring, during the countdown to their impending arrival. She is 28 weeks pregnant, and complications mean they will definitely be delivered by the 32 week mark. It sounds scary, but she has taken it all in her stride.
They say behind every great man there is a great woman... well behind these posts has been her spectre looming large; as my IT guru, brilliant sub-editor and co-author of some of the finest witticisms. We can't break up this team, so I'll be watching this important match on her tiny 21 inch Hospital TV. The sound comes out of a little telephone-like speaker, and we need to crook our necks to the roof to see the screen....not that we're complaining - these issues can be defined as "first world problems". That said, if I miss any of the game's finer nuances, it is probably because they were too hard to spot!
Wales fire the first salvo with a magnificent anthem!
It is amusing watching the game on Maori TV on this tiny TV set. The combination of the tiny screen and Keith Quinn's commentary makes me feel like I'm back in 1985! Also the big monstering start by the Welsh forwards is of a previous epic era. They hammer away at the Irish line and set up a marvellous try to speedy right winger Shane Williams. The try is converted 7-0 after just 4 minutes.
The Irish rise to this challenge, and earn a kickable penalty on the Welsh line moments later. They turn down the 3 points, and go for a line-out, TWICE. This is a statement, Ireland want their points 5 at a time at least. But it's not to be the Welsh repel the Celtic hoards and Ireland will be rueing their brave decision.
Still 7-0 after 10 minutes.
Amazingly on 15 minutes the Irish again refuse to kick for 3 points. This is either brilliant or crazy. They get closer this time and get the ball over the Welsh line, but are held up. The Irish scrum looks solid. They keep pounding on the Welsh line but Ronan O'Gara drops the pill. Oh No! The Welsh relieve the pressure, still 7-0 with 19 minutes played.
The Irish nearly score from a lovely break from fullback Rob Carney. Another penalty is conceded by Wales - this time they Irish take the 3 points on offer as O'Gara slots it. It is almost disappointing they've seen sense, but it is a boon they are back in the game. 7-3 after 24 minutes. It could be 7-9!
Almost immediately the Welsh attempt a three pointer of their own. I guess it is inevitable the game will settle down to a kick fest, but the first 20 minutes were some of the most entertaining of the whole tournament so far. Leigh Halfpenny bangs it over from round 50 metres. 10-3 to Wales after 29 minutes.
The Irish aren't finished with running footy yet. Soon they are camped back on the Welsh try-line for the third time in the match. This really is a great match. Ronan O'Gara is being extremely influential - his kicking game is gaining the Irish plenty of cheap yards.
But despite making the lion's share of the enterprise the Irish can't turn the pressure into points. They head to the sheds with Wales ahead by 10-3.
It seems the Irish will have the wind at their backs in the second half. Whether or not it is a 7 point breeze will be discovered in the next 40 minutes. Within minutes of kickoff the Irish are camped back on the Welsh line, and they have their tails up.
Ireland score an almost infeasible try to left winger Keith Earls - the two try hero from the Italian match. They looked to have absolutely butchered it, as the pass was hurled to Earls on the bounce. He gathers, sprints and begins his dive a full 6 metres from the line. The TMO shows that he fairly scored the 5 pointer in almost worm-like fashion. Ronan O'Gara slots a very difficult conversion and the score is tied at 10 apiece after 46 minutes. Rugby is the winner at the moment!
Ireland's try spurs the Welsh back into action. They have been simply soaking up Irish pressure since scoring first. They'll need to do more now, and they know it. Massive halfback Mike Phillips scores with a delightful swan dive in the left Irish corner. Welcome to Game On! country. 15-10 Wales after 51 minutes.
There is a huge turning point in the match after 58 minutes. The Welsh earn a kickable penalty and Halfpenny hits the post. If it had gone over then the Welsh would have a very defendable 8 point lead, but it doesn't. Ireland could still be ahead with a converted try, and everyone knows it.
Jonathan Sexton is on for O'Gara. He isn't quite as dependable with place kicking, but seems to have a bigger bag of open play kicking tricks. His boot will face the most important 20 minutes of its career.
Well I never, Jonathan Davis begins a run at the Irish defence from beyond the 22 metre line. Nobody wants to tackle him and he is allowed to monster over for the 3rd Welsh try. The score favours the Leeks 22-10 after 65 minutes. It is Wales' game to lose.
Or Ireland's to win! They assault the Welsh line and have them at their mercy... only to knock on. There are 12 minutes left.
With 8 minutes to go Megan exclaims "The Irish need a miracle." But it seems it isn't going to happen. Again the Welsh hit the post with a penalty, but Ireland aren't making the play enough. The Welsh are looking well worth their 12 point lead.
The Welsh are managing to contain the multiple Irish assaults by committing fewer forwards to the rucks. Their back line is chockfull of big hulking forward units as well as all the backs. The Irish simply can't find a way through and run out of time.
Wales become the second Welsh side to progress to a World Cup Semi, and they thoroughly deserve it.
Ireland were valiant and never gave up, but that wasn't enough.
Final Score Wales 22-10 Ireland
41 games 246 tries.
Tweet of the match - "The Welsh are playing like it's the end of the world. Have switched allegiances. Go Wales!" @mattgeeknz ... Matt is a beloved friend of ours and is ordinarily disinterested in all sport, particularly rugby. The fact that he watched this game in the first place, let alone felt allegiance to either team, says it all.
Battle of the North - The Saturday Quarter Finals -My Bold Predictions
After 40 games of rugby in just 3 weeks, the RWC has reached the sudden death phase. As the Flight of the Conchords say; "it's business time!". Like the rest of the country, I've been enjoying the time off between games, but not because I'm sick of rugby. The break in play has meant time to mull over the forthcoming games, and consider what might happen.
Well this post, and another I'll post tomorrow morning, is all about putting my money where my mouth is. I'll put them up in advance of the games, and we'll see how close I was to being correct within hours.
Game 1 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
Ireland (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 6) vs Wales (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 7).
The team that most pundits seem to think have the edge here is Wales. They have scored 180 points in the 4 games at this tournament, and in doing so they have rattled in a bloody impressive 23 tries. Yes they lost a match, but that was a very close run thing against big guns South Africa in Game 8. Losing that game by a solitary point saw them finish Poll D in 2nd spot with utmost respect.
Ireland have had their finest Rugby World Cup to date. They've scored 135 points, including 15 tries. But whatever happens from here on, their tournament will always be remembered for their amazing boil-over defeat of the Wallabies in Game 16. They won Pool C and are one of only 4 teams remaining who are still undefeated.
Why do most people think Wales are going to win then? History, I guess - they have a longer heritage, are more proven in winning big games and some consider that they have more belief.
But I don't think Wales will win. I think the Irish have more ticker. They have an excellent first five Jonathan Sexton, an inspirational captain in Brian O'Driscoll, and a superb winger in Tommy Bowe. And they have proved they can win the games that matter.
Even though the game against Australia went down to the wire, the Irish actually won the it by 9 points. They've had the chance to beat the Wallabies at RWC's twice before and haven't taken it. I think every member of their 30 man squad will believe passionately that THIS is their year. And I think they are not only going to win this game, but possibly make a final.
It will be close don't get me wrong, but Irish eyes will be smiling in Wellington tonight.
Game 2 - 8.30pm Eden Park
England (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 5) vs France (RWC 2011 - 2 wins, 2 losses/ World Ranking 4)
There is no doubt that the English are by far the superior team in this match up. They have totally dominated Pool B, despite their many off-field escapades. They also have marvellous momentum, having looked better with each outing. They are undefeated at the cup and have scored 137 points and 18 tries. Not only that, they have by far the best defence at the tournament and have only conceded a single try (to Georgia of all teams!).
This is the poorest French team we've ever seen at a Rugby World Cup. They can consider themselves exceptionally lucky to advance from Pool A having been whipped by the All Blacks and then humiliated by Tonga in Game 35. They don't seem to be in the least bit French either; lacking both the muscular forward pack and the mercurial backline we all expect from Gallic teams.
So it is obvious what will go down tonight in Auckland then? I think not. I think the England will play very well in the first instance and build up a healthy lead. They'll amass most of their points via kicking penalties and/or drop goals, probably from Toby Flood's boot rather than Jonny Wilkinson's. But I think that then they will try and sit on their lead rather than pressing on, and that will prove their undoing.
If the French aren't put away by a significant margin in the first half, I reckon they'll muster their magic and fight back in the second half. I think the French will have a last gasp chance to win the game with 15 or so minutes remaining, and that they may well do just that. I predict that France will grasp a shock victory.
Well this post, and another I'll post tomorrow morning, is all about putting my money where my mouth is. I'll put them up in advance of the games, and we'll see how close I was to being correct within hours.
Game 1 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
Ireland (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 6) vs Wales (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 7).
The team that most pundits seem to think have the edge here is Wales. They have scored 180 points in the 4 games at this tournament, and in doing so they have rattled in a bloody impressive 23 tries. Yes they lost a match, but that was a very close run thing against big guns South Africa in Game 8. Losing that game by a solitary point saw them finish Poll D in 2nd spot with utmost respect.
Ireland have had their finest Rugby World Cup to date. They've scored 135 points, including 15 tries. But whatever happens from here on, their tournament will always be remembered for their amazing boil-over defeat of the Wallabies in Game 16. They won Pool C and are one of only 4 teams remaining who are still undefeated.
Why do most people think Wales are going to win then? History, I guess - they have a longer heritage, are more proven in winning big games and some consider that they have more belief.
But I don't think Wales will win. I think the Irish have more ticker. They have an excellent first five Jonathan Sexton, an inspirational captain in Brian O'Driscoll, and a superb winger in Tommy Bowe. And they have proved they can win the games that matter.
Even though the game against Australia went down to the wire, the Irish actually won the it by 9 points. They've had the chance to beat the Wallabies at RWC's twice before and haven't taken it. I think every member of their 30 man squad will believe passionately that THIS is their year. And I think they are not only going to win this game, but possibly make a final.
It will be close don't get me wrong, but Irish eyes will be smiling in Wellington tonight.
Game 2 - 8.30pm Eden Park
England (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 5) vs France (RWC 2011 - 2 wins, 2 losses/ World Ranking 4)
There is no doubt that the English are by far the superior team in this match up. They have totally dominated Pool B, despite their many off-field escapades. They also have marvellous momentum, having looked better with each outing. They are undefeated at the cup and have scored 137 points and 18 tries. Not only that, they have by far the best defence at the tournament and have only conceded a single try (to Georgia of all teams!).
This is the poorest French team we've ever seen at a Rugby World Cup. They can consider themselves exceptionally lucky to advance from Pool A having been whipped by the All Blacks and then humiliated by Tonga in Game 35. They don't seem to be in the least bit French either; lacking both the muscular forward pack and the mercurial backline we all expect from Gallic teams.
So it is obvious what will go down tonight in Auckland then? I think not. I think the England will play very well in the first instance and build up a healthy lead. They'll amass most of their points via kicking penalties and/or drop goals, probably from Toby Flood's boot rather than Jonny Wilkinson's. But I think that then they will try and sit on their lead rather than pressing on, and that will prove their undoing.
If the French aren't put away by a significant margin in the first half, I reckon they'll muster their magic and fight back in the second half. I think the French will have a last gasp chance to win the game with 15 or so minutes remaining, and that they may well do just that. I predict that France will grasp a shock victory.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Quarter Finals Preview
Megan and I had to go to the hospital today for a scan of our twins and we took my Mum along with us.
She likes Rugby, LOVES Cory Jane, but doesn't always follow everything to the finest detail.
She asked who New Zealand were playing in the Quarter Finals...
Me: "Argentina Mum"
Mum: "Oh goodness, and are South Africa playing the Wallabies?" (her voice should be imagined as a somewhat dim, falsetto)
Me: "They sure are Mum. And Ireland will be playing Wales"
Mum: "Ohhhh, that's surprising".
Me: "Why is that surprising?".
Mum: "Well I thought England would have made it through, they've seemed quite good"
Me: "They have Mum - they're playing France".
Mum: (in a voice of genuine shock) "Really?"
Me: "Mum you do realise that there are 4 quarter finals - that's why they are called 'quarter' finals"
Mum sits in stunned silence.
So as a favour to you humble reader and my beloved Mum, I'll let you all know about the forthcoming matches.
There are two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday.
Saturday October 8th
Game 1 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
Ireland (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 6) vs Wales (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 7).
Game 2 - 8.30pm Eden Park
England (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 5) vs France (RWC 2011 - 2 wins, 2 losses/ World Ranking 4)
Sunday October 9th
Game 3 - 6pm Wellington Regional Stadium
South Africa (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 2) vs Australia (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 3)
Game 4 - 8.30pm Eden Park
New Zealand (RWC 2011 - 4 wins, no losses/ World Ranking 1) vs Argentina (RWC 2011 - 3 wins, 1 loss/ World Ranking 9)
There we have it.
Our scan has mean't that my beloved co-pilot Megan is going to be admitted to hospital to ensure our twins are ok. So we are in for a tough couple of weeks, but with a glorious prize up for grabs. Just like those 8 teams.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Game 40 - Ireland v Italy - Otago Stadium - 2nd Oct 2011
What an amazing four weeks it has been. We've seen so many fine matches of rugby so far. 239 tries in 39 matches so far, over 6 per game! There have been an unprecedented number of near upsets, and some genuine astounding full time scores. It is fitting that the final pool game is the one which will decide Pool C. And it's exciting that the result is by no means a foregone conclusion.
These two teams have been playing each other regularly in 6 Nation Championship since the year 2000 and while the statistics clearly favour the Irish, the Italians will know they have beaten the Shamrocks three times. If they can manage to win today then they will progress to the Quarter Finals. Given this scenario I reckon anything could happen, but Italy will have to play the game of their lives to take the match.
The first half is an arm wrestle of styles. The Irish backs are having a go at anything, while the Italian pack are imperious in the set piece and particularly brutal at scrum-time. The half follows this pattern... Ronan O'Gara, Penalty, Mirco Bergamasco penalty etc. The difference between the teams is that when the Italians concede penalties it seems to be a deliberate option to prevent the Irish from getting a roll on. Pretty negative stuff all right.
The constant infringing comes at the expense of the game's flow and the teams head to the sheds with the Irish team deservedly in front by 9-6. They would definitely like more points, but their more positive play is slowly gaining the advantage.
The Irish are much improved in the second spell, and O'Gara nails another 3 pointer early to put them 12-6 ahead after 42 minutes. Next Ireland's finest ever player Brian O'Driscoll gets on the end of a finely worked backline move to grab the game's first try. O'Gara converts and the 19-6 lead means they are well out of harm's way.
If Italy want to make their first quarter final they'll need tries of their own... I'm not sure they're up to it. The final nail comes for their coffin on the 52 minute mark; the Irish present wave upon wave of assaults on the Italians led by bullocking second five Gordon Darcy. They stretch play first to the right, then out left where flying winger Keith Earls picks up the try. O'Gara slots the conversion. 26-6 and it is now all Ireland.
The Italians are permanently on the back foot, but muster incredible defence to hold up a certain try 55 minutes into the game. Even though they look beaten they are still fighting - this is very admirable. They finally begin to assert some pressure beyond the 60th minute. They camp in the Irish half for many minutes and hold onto a succession of possession.
But the Irish are patient and soak it all up without losing any advantage. Then on the 68th minute O'Gara's replacement Jonathan Sexton further demoralises the Itaians by slotting a 45 metre penalty. 29-6 to the Shamrocks with little more than ten minutes to play.
The Italians spend the final ten minutes of the match deep in the Irish half as they desperately scramble for a consolation try. The Irish coaching staff are probably delighted to see the team soaking up this pressure and not succumbing to the Italians' passion. This is a great sign for the quarter finals for Ireland.
To cap off a glorious night, Tommy Bowe scores the individual try of the tournament in the final minute. Well he would have but he was taken out as he was diving across the line to touch his toe hack down. But incredibly the TMO doesn't see it this way and no penalty try is awarded.
It doesn't matter though when Keith Earles returns the following twenty two yard drop out, back across the Italian line to finish a great night for the Irish.
Final score: Ireland 36- Italy 6
40 games 242 tries.
Tweet of the match - "Berlusconi, Rossi, da Vinci, Michaelangelo, your boys took one hell of a beating....#rwc2011 #IRE" @campbellc66
Tweet of the pools - "Dear Canada, Fiji, Georgia, Italy, Japan, Namibia, Romania, Russia, Samoa, Scotland, Tonga & USA - THANK YOU ALL! We'll miss you. Haere ra." @JohnJCampbell
These two teams have been playing each other regularly in 6 Nation Championship since the year 2000 and while the statistics clearly favour the Irish, the Italians will know they have beaten the Shamrocks three times. If they can manage to win today then they will progress to the Quarter Finals. Given this scenario I reckon anything could happen, but Italy will have to play the game of their lives to take the match.
The first half is an arm wrestle of styles. The Irish backs are having a go at anything, while the Italian pack are imperious in the set piece and particularly brutal at scrum-time. The half follows this pattern... Ronan O'Gara, Penalty, Mirco Bergamasco penalty etc. The difference between the teams is that when the Italians concede penalties it seems to be a deliberate option to prevent the Irish from getting a roll on. Pretty negative stuff all right.
The constant infringing comes at the expense of the game's flow and the teams head to the sheds with the Irish team deservedly in front by 9-6. They would definitely like more points, but their more positive play is slowly gaining the advantage.
The Irish are much improved in the second spell, and O'Gara nails another 3 pointer early to put them 12-6 ahead after 42 minutes. Next Ireland's finest ever player Brian O'Driscoll gets on the end of a finely worked backline move to grab the game's first try. O'Gara converts and the 19-6 lead means they are well out of harm's way.
If Italy want to make their first quarter final they'll need tries of their own... I'm not sure they're up to it. The final nail comes for their coffin on the 52 minute mark; the Irish present wave upon wave of assaults on the Italians led by bullocking second five Gordon Darcy. They stretch play first to the right, then out left where flying winger Keith Earls picks up the try. O'Gara slots the conversion. 26-6 and it is now all Ireland.
The Italians are permanently on the back foot, but muster incredible defence to hold up a certain try 55 minutes into the game. Even though they look beaten they are still fighting - this is very admirable. They finally begin to assert some pressure beyond the 60th minute. They camp in the Irish half for many minutes and hold onto a succession of possession.
But the Irish are patient and soak it all up without losing any advantage. Then on the 68th minute O'Gara's replacement Jonathan Sexton further demoralises the Itaians by slotting a 45 metre penalty. 29-6 to the Shamrocks with little more than ten minutes to play.
The Italians spend the final ten minutes of the match deep in the Irish half as they desperately scramble for a consolation try. The Irish coaching staff are probably delighted to see the team soaking up this pressure and not succumbing to the Italians' passion. This is a great sign for the quarter finals for Ireland.
To cap off a glorious night, Tommy Bowe scores the individual try of the tournament in the final minute. Well he would have but he was taken out as he was diving across the line to touch his toe hack down. But incredibly the TMO doesn't see it this way and no penalty try is awarded.
It doesn't matter though when Keith Earles returns the following twenty two yard drop out, back across the Italian line to finish a great night for the Irish.
Final score: Ireland 36- Italy 6
40 games 242 tries.
Tweet of the match - "Berlusconi, Rossi, da Vinci, Michaelangelo, your boys took one hell of a beating....#rwc2011 #IRE" @campbellc66
Tweet of the pools - "Dear Canada, Fiji, Georgia, Italy, Japan, Namibia, Romania, Russia, Samoa, Scotland, Tonga & USA - THANK YOU ALL! We'll miss you. Haere ra." @JohnJCampbell
Game 39 - Wales v Fiji - Waikato Stadium - 2nd Oct 2011
Based on these two teams' performances at this tournament up until now, you could expect Wales to win this match pretty comfortably. They outrank Fiji in the IRB ratings 7th v 15th. Wales very nearly upset the big guns South Africa in Game 8 - the same Springbok outfit who absolutely whipped Fiji a week later 49-3.
Fiji have been the most lacklustre of all of the Pacific teams. Where Tonga and Samoa have improved all tournament long, Fiji have grown poorer. They look to me like a team ready to leave the tournament, not a team making the most of their time here.
The game is nearly the most one sided effort of the whole tournament. Fiji are not regarded as a minnow, but they look like they are aspiring to be demoted. With so much footy to watch this weekend (yes the Warriors are about to kick off) I suggest my devoted readers catch the details of this drubbing through normal media. Suffice to say the 66-0 defeat is Fiji's worst ever result. And they were lucky to get nil.
As for Wales, any team that scores 9 tries and concedes a donut, against a team full of huge fast men is worthy of respect. That great effort against South Africa was by no means a one-off. Wales and Ireland are the only two Northern Hemisphere teams playing aspirational footy at this RWC. It seems to me an absolute tragedy that they are destined to meet in a Quarter Final next week. If only one of them could take on England.
Final score: Wales 66 - Fiji 0
39 games 239 tries.
Tweet of the match - "Wales looking the complete package. Just need that big win against one of the top 4 nations to get the mental edge." @MrSmithMachine
Fiji have been the most lacklustre of all of the Pacific teams. Where Tonga and Samoa have improved all tournament long, Fiji have grown poorer. They look to me like a team ready to leave the tournament, not a team making the most of their time here.
The game is nearly the most one sided effort of the whole tournament. Fiji are not regarded as a minnow, but they look like they are aspiring to be demoted. With so much footy to watch this weekend (yes the Warriors are about to kick off) I suggest my devoted readers catch the details of this drubbing through normal media. Suffice to say the 66-0 defeat is Fiji's worst ever result. And they were lucky to get nil.
As for Wales, any team that scores 9 tries and concedes a donut, against a team full of huge fast men is worthy of respect. That great effort against South Africa was by no means a one-off. Wales and Ireland are the only two Northern Hemisphere teams playing aspirational footy at this RWC. It seems to me an absolute tragedy that they are destined to meet in a Quarter Final next week. If only one of them could take on England.
Final score: Wales 66 - Fiji 0
39 games 239 tries.
Tweet of the match - "Wales looking the complete package. Just need that big win against one of the top 4 nations to get the mental edge." @MrSmithMachine
Game 38 - New Zealand v Canada - Wellington Regional Stadium - 2nd Oct 2011
My beautiful wife Megan, our unborn twins and I are going to this game today and we couldn't be more excited. I've experienced three other games, Megan has been to two, but this is our only chance to see the ABs. Seeing our own team play live is the only thing left in this tournament that could compare to the beautiful Tongan upset in last night's boil-over.
We realised at the last minute we shouldn't miss this opportunity to see a team on the cusp of making history. A tweet from a friend of a friend in Auckland unearthed 2 great tickets on Wednesday night - we snapped them up and waited by the letterbox for two nervous days. They arrived yesterday just in the nick of time.
But the All Blacks come to the match under an injury cloud. They will be playing without their two finest jewels, Richie and DC. I heard about McCaw's travails midweek, and was surprised when management only withdrew him on Saturday. They are obviously keeping their team and selections behind an intricate veil of spin, which is the way of the world, but tough for fans.
Even tougher is the breaking news hot off the press, that Carter is officially out of the tournament, with his groin to blame. This is the nightmare that every New Zealand fan has dreaded throughout the two years build up. First five is probably the only position in New Zealand's XV where the "next best" option is both quantifiably inferior and unproven.
It is also a personal nightmare for Dan Carter himself, who has been the consumate professional over the last 4 years of service to his country and province. Not only is he clearly the World's best player, but he is approachable, articulate, great with kids and fans, and always seems humble and likeable. He deserved a better outcome than this, and he has every right to feel devastated.
Having said that the All Blacks as a team need to regroup quickly from this. Every other top tier nation has had injury issues in this tournament - that is what tournaments are all about. I dare say Robbie Deans would happily exchange a revitalised Wallaby backline for an unfit Quade Cooper if given the choice. If the All Blacks want to be called World Champions then they must find ways to win games without Carter and possibly without Richie too.
Simply put, this is a nerve wracking prospect because all AB fans know that the team without either of these two has historically struggled against quality opposition. It also means that today against Canada, hooker Andrew Hore aka "Seal Killer" will be running on for the first time as captain. A great honour for him no doubt, but for my thoughts on this prospect please refer to the tail end of my Game 13 wrap up.
Moving on though... there are quite a few cool things about this match; it is a very rare chance to see the All Blacks play during the day, Keiren Reid returns to the side from injury, SBW gets a start, Zac Guildford and Colin Slade have great chances to redeem themselves and most touchingly Mils Milliaunia will play his 99th test. It will be a privilege to see what goes down at the Cake Tin today.
There were heaps of us at the Stadium, that's for sure. The official attendance was 37665 and it was easily the biggest crowd I've seen at that ground. Everyone was good humoured, but the DC news was rippling around from seat to seat. All eyes were on Colin Slade, and how the All Blacks would go without their talisman.
We saw a mixed bag, I'd have to say. Some players particularly Jeome Keino, SBW, Conrad Smith and Zac Guildford (4 tries!) were outstanding. And some players were pretty good. But probably the poorest All Black was the aforementioned Slade. I felt for him because it can't be easy trying to replace such a legend, but aspects of his game are certainly faltering.
He had kicks charged down, he had passes go to ground or intercepted and he kicked for goal very poorly. He really had a bad game when everyone was hoping for better. I'm not sure where that leaves the selectors. Piri Weepu seemed a more natural fit when he subbed on after 50 minutes, but will he have such impact when starting matches? Or do they play the completely untested (at this level) Aaron Cruden? I'm glad it isn't my decision.
The Canadians played a great role in the match. They became the first team to lead the All Blacks at this RWC when they drew first blood with a penalty kick after a solitary minute. Then they were competitive throughout the match particularly either side of half time as winger Conor Trainor bagged opportunistic tries.
The Maple Leaves also had an outstanding line-out, which showed a trick or two, including a superb planned 30-35 metre throw right over the line-out for the centre to run onto. I've never seen anything like it, and I'd like to see it again!
I guess only an All Black fan would feel disappointed by a 79-15/ 12 tries to 2 thrashing, but I kind of do. And I admit this is churlish, but I am definitely happy for Zac Guildford who has seized his chance at redemption with both hands.
Final Score: All Blacks 79 - Canada 15
38 games 230 tries
Tweet of the match - "MEDIA CONFERENCE tomorrow: Zac Guildford to apologise for being awesome." @sumostevenson
We realised at the last minute we shouldn't miss this opportunity to see a team on the cusp of making history. A tweet from a friend of a friend in Auckland unearthed 2 great tickets on Wednesday night - we snapped them up and waited by the letterbox for two nervous days. They arrived yesterday just in the nick of time.
But the All Blacks come to the match under an injury cloud. They will be playing without their two finest jewels, Richie and DC. I heard about McCaw's travails midweek, and was surprised when management only withdrew him on Saturday. They are obviously keeping their team and selections behind an intricate veil of spin, which is the way of the world, but tough for fans.
Even tougher is the breaking news hot off the press, that Carter is officially out of the tournament, with his groin to blame. This is the nightmare that every New Zealand fan has dreaded throughout the two years build up. First five is probably the only position in New Zealand's XV where the "next best" option is both quantifiably inferior and unproven.
It is also a personal nightmare for Dan Carter himself, who has been the consumate professional over the last 4 years of service to his country and province. Not only is he clearly the World's best player, but he is approachable, articulate, great with kids and fans, and always seems humble and likeable. He deserved a better outcome than this, and he has every right to feel devastated.
Having said that the All Blacks as a team need to regroup quickly from this. Every other top tier nation has had injury issues in this tournament - that is what tournaments are all about. I dare say Robbie Deans would happily exchange a revitalised Wallaby backline for an unfit Quade Cooper if given the choice. If the All Blacks want to be called World Champions then they must find ways to win games without Carter and possibly without Richie too.
Simply put, this is a nerve wracking prospect because all AB fans know that the team without either of these two has historically struggled against quality opposition. It also means that today against Canada, hooker Andrew Hore aka "Seal Killer" will be running on for the first time as captain. A great honour for him no doubt, but for my thoughts on this prospect please refer to the tail end of my Game 13 wrap up.
Moving on though... there are quite a few cool things about this match; it is a very rare chance to see the All Blacks play during the day, Keiren Reid returns to the side from injury, SBW gets a start, Zac Guildford and Colin Slade have great chances to redeem themselves and most touchingly Mils Milliaunia will play his 99th test. It will be a privilege to see what goes down at the Cake Tin today.
There were heaps of us at the Stadium, that's for sure. The official attendance was 37665 and it was easily the biggest crowd I've seen at that ground. Everyone was good humoured, but the DC news was rippling around from seat to seat. All eyes were on Colin Slade, and how the All Blacks would go without their talisman.
We saw a mixed bag, I'd have to say. Some players particularly Jeome Keino, SBW, Conrad Smith and Zac Guildford (4 tries!) were outstanding. And some players were pretty good. But probably the poorest All Black was the aforementioned Slade. I felt for him because it can't be easy trying to replace such a legend, but aspects of his game are certainly faltering.
He had kicks charged down, he had passes go to ground or intercepted and he kicked for goal very poorly. He really had a bad game when everyone was hoping for better. I'm not sure where that leaves the selectors. Piri Weepu seemed a more natural fit when he subbed on after 50 minutes, but will he have such impact when starting matches? Or do they play the completely untested (at this level) Aaron Cruden? I'm glad it isn't my decision.
The Canadians played a great role in the match. They became the first team to lead the All Blacks at this RWC when they drew first blood with a penalty kick after a solitary minute. Then they were competitive throughout the match particularly either side of half time as winger Conor Trainor bagged opportunistic tries.
The Maple Leaves also had an outstanding line-out, which showed a trick or two, including a superb planned 30-35 metre throw right over the line-out for the centre to run onto. I've never seen anything like it, and I'd like to see it again!
I guess only an All Black fan would feel disappointed by a 79-15/ 12 tries to 2 thrashing, but I kind of do. And I admit this is churlish, but I am definitely happy for Zac Guildford who has seized his chance at redemption with both hands.
Final Score: All Blacks 79 - Canada 15
38 games 230 tries
Tweet of the match - "MEDIA CONFERENCE tomorrow: Zac Guildford to apologise for being awesome." @sumostevenson
Game 37 - Argentina v Georgia - Arena Manawatu - 2nd October 2011
This must be a brief post by necessity. Megan and I are off to Wellington's Cake Tin, for our only look at the All Blacks in the flesh at this tournament. That means travelling to the ground before the conclusion of this match. So I figure I should embrace this completely and try to guess the final score.
Argentina have had a great tournament, and are in the hot seat to progress from the pool of death. I figure their forward pack will absorb a lot of pressure from the tough Georgians in the early stages but the gap between the teams will grow larger as the match gets older. Georgia will be playing their 2nd match in 4 days and they simply don't have the depth to compete in this match over 80 minutes.
I reckon Los Pumas will score 6 tries in the match and Georgia will snatch 1.
The final score will be 40-10.
We'll all find out how keen my Rugby Radar is when we get back from the ABs match!
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Wow, so I've just discovered what happened! As the Fonz said I was w w w w... only half right!
Argentina opened the scoring with a marvellous try by Juan Imhoff, but despite this they were a long way from dominant. Georgia played the first 40 minutes of their lives and when Lashka Khmaladze ran on to a delicate kick and scored a try which, when converted by Kashvilli, put them 7-5 ahead on the 38 minute mark.
They hold this lead for 11 minutes of the second half until Contemponi kicks the Argentineans back in front. Then he kicks another penalty 8 minutes later. The lead after 60 minutes is razor slim at only 11-7. So much for my prediction, but the Georgians grow weary.
The Pumas added two tries in the last ten minutes to round out comfortable winners on the scoreboard 25-7. The Georgians can only dream about what they might have done if they'd had fresher legs.
They have grown over the tournament beyond their minnow status, perhaps now they are a slightly bigger species - a snapper perhaps.
Final Score: Argentina 25 - Georgia 7
37 games 216 tries
Tweet of the match- "There are only 750 senior players in Georgia" @freezingkiwis
Argentina have had a great tournament, and are in the hot seat to progress from the pool of death. I figure their forward pack will absorb a lot of pressure from the tough Georgians in the early stages but the gap between the teams will grow larger as the match gets older. Georgia will be playing their 2nd match in 4 days and they simply don't have the depth to compete in this match over 80 minutes.
I reckon Los Pumas will score 6 tries in the match and Georgia will snatch 1.
The final score will be 40-10.
We'll all find out how keen my Rugby Radar is when we get back from the ABs match!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wow, so I've just discovered what happened! As the Fonz said I was w w w w... only half right!
Argentina opened the scoring with a marvellous try by Juan Imhoff, but despite this they were a long way from dominant. Georgia played the first 40 minutes of their lives and when Lashka Khmaladze ran on to a delicate kick and scored a try which, when converted by Kashvilli, put them 7-5 ahead on the 38 minute mark.
They hold this lead for 11 minutes of the second half until Contemponi kicks the Argentineans back in front. Then he kicks another penalty 8 minutes later. The lead after 60 minutes is razor slim at only 11-7. So much for my prediction, but the Georgians grow weary.
The Pumas added two tries in the last ten minutes to round out comfortable winners on the scoreboard 25-7. The Georgians can only dream about what they might have done if they'd had fresher legs.
They have grown over the tournament beyond their minnow status, perhaps now they are a slightly bigger species - a snapper perhaps.
Final Score: Argentina 25 - Georgia 7
37 games 216 tries
Tweet of the match- "There are only 750 senior players in Georgia" @freezingkiwis
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